Statistics / Football / Norway. Toppserien / Stabæk W vs Brann W

Stabæk W vs Brann W Statistics & Analysis

Stabæk W Stabæk W
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.04
1 1.56
xG Accuracy: 64%
Brann W Brann W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brann W Brann W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10087051

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Brann W win · Stabæk W 0–1 Brann W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Stabæk W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Stabæk W (1X2) 23.7 10.7 +13.0
Draw (1X2) 28.5 15.8 +12.7
Brann W (1X2) 47.8 73.6 -25.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.0 -17.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.0 +17.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.0%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Stabæk W (1X2) 8.62 8.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.83 5.83 0.0
Brann W (1X2) 1.25 1.25 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.74 2.74 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Toppserien
  • Fixture: Stabæk W vs Brann W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.7% · Draw 28.5% · Away 47.8%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk W 1.04 — Brann W 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Toppserien Toppserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brann W 17 15 2 0 47
2 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 13 2 2 41
3 Rosenborg W 17 11 4 2 37
4 Vålerenga W 17 11 1 5 34
5 Stabæk W 17 7 3 7 24
6 Lyn W 17 6 5 6 23
7 Molde W 17 5 3 9 18
8 Haugesund W 17 5 3 9 18
9 Lillestrøm 17 4 3 10 15
10 Hønefoss W 17 3 4 10 13
11 Røa 17 2 5 10 11
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 1 3 13 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brann W 17 53 4 +49 47
2 Vålerenga W 17 45 24 +21 34
3 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 42 16 +26 41
4 Stabæk W 17 33 20 +13 24
5 Rosenborg W 17 32 19 +13 37
6 Lyn W 17 30 23 +7 23
7 Molde W 17 23 33 -10 18
8 Lillestrøm 17 23 33 -10 15
9 Haugesund W 17 22 40 -18 18
10 Røa 17 16 36 -20 11
11 Hønefoss W 17 13 30 -17 13
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 11 65 -54 6