Statistics / Football / Norway. Toppserien / Hønefoss W vs Røa

Hønefoss W vs Røa Statistics & Analysis

Hønefoss W Hønefoss W
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Røa Røa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hønefoss W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8658386

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hønefoss W 0–0 Røa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Toppserien
  • Fixture: Hønefoss W vs Røa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hønefoss W 1.32 — Røa 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Toppserien Toppserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brann W 17 15 2 0 47
2 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 13 2 2 41
3 Rosenborg W 17 11 4 2 37
4 Vålerenga W 17 11 1 5 34
5 Stabæk W 17 7 3 7 24
6 Lyn W 17 6 5 6 23
7 Molde W 17 5 3 9 18
8 Haugesund W 17 5 3 9 18
9 Lillestrøm 17 4 3 10 15
10 Hønefoss W 17 3 4 10 13
11 Røa 17 2 5 10 11
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 1 3 13 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brann W 17 53 4 +49 47
2 Vålerenga W 17 45 24 +21 34
3 Fortuna Ålesund W 17 42 16 +26 41
4 Stabæk W 17 33 20 +13 24
5 Rosenborg W 17 32 19 +13 37
6 Lyn W 17 30 23 +7 23
7 Molde W 17 23 33 -10 18
8 Lillestrøm 17 23 33 -10 15
9 Haugesund W 17 22 40 -18 18
10 Røa 17 16 36 -20 11
11 Hønefoss W 17 13 30 -17 13
12 Bodø / Glimt 17 11 65 -54 6