Spartak Plovdiv vs Rozova dolina Statistics & Analysis

Spartak Plovdiv

May 12, 2026 - 15:00

4 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 35%

Rozova dolina

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Spartak Plovdiv Spartak Plovdiv ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 16:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1901128

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Spartak Plovdiv win · Spartak Plovdiv 4–0 Rozova dolina

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Third League - Southeast
Fixture: Spartak Plovdiv vs Rozova dolina
Kickoff: 2026-05-13 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Spartak Plovdiv 1.45 — Rozova dolina 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nesebar	36	29	4	3	91
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	36	23	6	7	75
3	Neftochimic Burgas	36	19	9	8	66
4	Yambol 1915	36	20	6	10	66
5	Levski Karlovo	36	20	5	11	65
6	Maritsa Milevo	36	17	9	10	60
7	Spartak Plovdiv	36	15	9	12	54
8	Sozopol	36	16	6	14	54
9	Sayana Haskovo	36	15	7	14	52
10	Zagorets	36	13	10	13	49
11	Rozova dolina	36	14	6	16	48
12	Gigant Saedinenie	36	14	5	17	47
13	Rodopa Smolyan	36	14	4	18	46
14	Atletik Kuklen	36	13	3	20	42
15	Sekirovo	36	9	8	19	35
16	Dimitrovgrad	36	10	5	21	35
17	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	36	9	6	21	33
18	FK Rakovski	36	8	3	25	27
19	Asenovets	36	6	5	25	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nesebar	36	116	22	+94	91
2	Maritsa Plovdiv	36	90	40	+50	75
3	Yambol 1915	36	72	41	+31	66
4	Maritsa Milevo	36	64	32	+32	60
5	Levski Karlovo	36	64	53	+11	65
6	Spartak Plovdiv	36	64	58	+6	54
7	Gigant Saedinenie	36	56	59	-3	47
8	Neftochimic Burgas	36	53	39	+14	66
9	Sayana Haskovo	36	52	48	+4	52
10	Zagorets	36	52	60	-8	49
11	Rodopa Smolyan	36	51	70	-19	46
12	Sozopol	36	50	38	+12	54
13	FK Rakovski	36	46	94	-48	27
14	Rozova dolina	36	45	52	-7	48
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	36	44	53	-9	33
16	Atletik Kuklen	36	43	78	-35	42
17	Dimitrovgrad	36	42	82	-40	35
18	Sekirovo	36	30	53	-23	35
19	Asenovets	36	30	92	-62	23