Statistics / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Statistics & Analysis

Aalesund Aalesund
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.54
4 1.87
xG Accuracy: 49%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13223268

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sarpsborg 08 FF win · Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 25.1% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): Aalesund 1.54 — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.87 (total xG ≈ 3.41)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bodo/Glimt 21 19.3 5.2 +14.1 50
2 Molde 21 20.3 7.1 +13.2 36
3 Rosenborg 21 15.7 10.1 +5.6 33
4 Viking 21 15.3 12.5 +2.8 50
5 Brann 21 11.2 8.6 +2.6 29
6 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 14.2 12.8 +1.4 25
7 Start 21 12.6 11.6 +1.0 16
8 Tromso 21 9.0 9.3 -0.3 38
9 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
10 Lillestrom 21 11.8 14.0 -2.2 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 10.5 13.8 -3.3 28
12 Ham-Kam 21 9.7 14.0 -4.3 23
13 Aalesund 21 11.3 17.3 -6.0 21
14 Sandefjord 21 7.5 14.0 -6.5 23
15 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25
16 Kristiansund BK 21 7.0 15.3 -8.3 19
Eliteserien Norway. Eliteserien Predictions