Statistics / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Sandefjord vs Start

Sandefjord vs Start Statistics & Analysis

Sandefjord Sandefjord
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.36
0 1.69
xG Accuracy: 40%
Start Start
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Start Sandefjord ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8683660

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sandefjord win · Sandefjord 3–0 Start
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Start (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Start (1X2) by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sandefjord (1X2) 32.3 45.6 -13.4
Draw (1X2) 26.7 26.0 +0.7
Start (1X2) 41.0 28.4 +12.6
Over 2.5 goals 58.8 58.3 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 41.2 41.7 -0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.0% on Start (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Sandefjord (1X2) 2.12 2.12 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.72 3.72 0.0
Start (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.31 2.31 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Sandefjord vs Start
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.3% · Draw 26.7% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Sandefjord 1.36 — Start 1.69 (total xG ≈ 3.05)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Start
  • Model: 41.0% · Implied: 28.4% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25