Statistics / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Start vs Brann

Start vs Brann Statistics & Analysis

Start Start
Sep 13, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.50
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 59%
Brann Brann
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Start Start ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7488422

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds 2.25
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Start win · Start 2–0 Brann
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 44.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Start (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Start (1X2) by about 10.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Start (1X2) 38.0 27.9 +10.1
Draw (1X2) 27.6 23.5 +4.1
Brann (1X2) 34.4 48.6 -14.2
Over 2.5 goals 55.9 61.0 -5.1
Under 2.5 goals 44.1 39.0 +5.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Start (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.9%. The difference — about 10.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Start (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.11 4.11 0.0
Brann (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.47 2.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Start vs Brann
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 27.6% · Away 34.4%
  • xG (showing): Start 1.5 — Brann 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.92)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.1% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +10.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bodo/Glimt 20 16 2 2 50
2 Viking 20 15 2 3 47
3 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
4 Tromso 20 10 5 5 35
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 20 10 2 8 32
7 Fredrikstad 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brann 20 8 2 10 26
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Ham-Kam 20 6 5 9 23
12 Valerenga 20 6 4 10 22
13 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
14 Sandefjord 20 5 5 10 20
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 20 4 4 12 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bodo/Glimt 20 52 17 +35 50
2 Viking 20 51 20 +31 47
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
5 Tromso 20 37 27 +10 35
6 Brann 20 37 31 +6 26
7 Valerenga 20 33 42 -9 22
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Lillestrom 20 28 26 +2 32
10 Ham-Kam 20 27 41 -14 23
11 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
12 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
13 Fredrikstad 20 24 31 -7 27
14 Start 20 22 41 -19 16
15 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
16 Sandefjord 20 18 27 -9 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 20 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 20 14.1 9.9 +4.2 47
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 20 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 20 8.6 7.3 +1.3 26
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 20 7.4 7.7 -0.3 35
9 Lillestrom 20 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 20 12.6 14.4 -1.8 22
11 Fredrikstad 20 9.0 12.2 -3.2 27
12 Sandefjord 20 7.1 11.3 -4.2 20
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 20 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25