Statistics / Football / Norway. Eliteserien / Brann vs Rosenborg

Brann vs Rosenborg Statistics & Analysis

Brann Brann
Aug 02, 2026 - 17:15
3 1.58
2 1.51
xG Accuracy: 59%
Rosenborg Rosenborg
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brann Brann ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1953431

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Brann win · Brann 3–2 Rosenborg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rosenborg (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rosenborg (1X2) by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Brann (1X2) 40.6 47.2 -6.5
Draw (1X2) 26.2 24.4 +1.8
Rosenborg (1X2) 33.1 28.4 +4.7
Over 2.5 goals 59.7 64.3 -4.7
Under 2.5 goals 40.3 35.6 +4.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.1% on Rosenborg (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Brann (1X2) 2.05 2.05 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.94 3.96 -0.1
Rosenborg (1X2) 3.41 3.41 +0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.5 1.49 +0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.67 2.69 -0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eliteserien
  • Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.6% · Draw 26.2% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): Brann 1.58 — Rosenborg 1.51 (total xG ≈ 3.09)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 40.3% · Implied: 36.9% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eliteserien Eliteserien — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 6 7 8 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 21
15 Kristiansund BK 21 5 4 12 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking 21 54 20 +34 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 53 19 +34 50
3 Molde 21 44 32 +12 36
4 Tromso 21 40 29 +11 38
5 Rosenborg 21 39 30 +9 33
6 Brann 21 39 32 +7 29
7 Valerenga 21 34 43 -9 23
8 Aalesund 21 33 46 -13 21
9 Ham-Kam 21 29 44 -15 23
10 Lillestrom 21 28 29 -1 32
11 Fredrikstad 21 25 32 -7 28
12 KFUM Oslo 21 25 35 -10 25
13 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 24 29 -5 25
14 Start 21 22 44 -22 16
15 Sandefjord 21 21 27 -6 23
16 Kristiansund BK 21 21 40 -19 19
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Molde 21 17.3 5.4 +11.9 36
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 15.3 4.9 +10.4 50
3 Viking 21 14.1 9.9 +4.2 50
4 Rosenborg 21 13.0 9.7 +3.3 33
5 Start 21 10.6 8.7 +1.9 16
6 Brann 21 8.6 7.3 +1.3 29
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 11.8 11.0 +0.8 25
8 Tromso 21 7.4 7.7 -0.3 38
9 Lillestrom 21 10.1 11.1 -1.0 32
10 Valerenga 21 12.6 14.4 -1.8 23
11 Fredrikstad 21 9.0 12.2 -3.2 28
12 Sandefjord 21 7.1 11.3 -4.2 23
13 Kristiansund BK 21 6.7 11.2 -4.5 19
14 Ham-Kam 21 6.8 12.0 -5.2 23
15 Aalesund 21 9.6 14.9 -5.3 21
16 KFUM Oslo 21 7.6 15.7 -8.1 25