Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF Statistics & Analysis

Malmo FF

Oct 12, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.25

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 66%

Kalmar FF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Malmo FF Malmo FF ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13670156

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Malmo FF win · Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Allsvenskan
Fixture: Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF
Kickoff: 2026-10-12 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Malmo FF 1.25 — Kalmar FF 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.52)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	13	4	5	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	13	2	7	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	10	5	7	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	33
8	AIK Stockholm	22	9	6	7	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	32
10	Gais	22	8	6	8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	5	7	10	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	5	4	13	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sirius	22	52	28	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	49	20	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	47	21	+26	41
4	BK Hacken	22	39	30	+9	36
5	Malmo FF	22	37	33	+4	33
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	34	35	-1	35
7	IF Elfsborg	22	31	22	+9	37
8	AIK Stockholm	22	31	34	-3	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	31	41	-10	32
10	IF Brommapojkarna	22	30	36	-6	27
11	Gais	22	28	20	+8	30
12	Mjallby AIF	22	27	38	-11	22
13	Orgryte IS	22	25	49	-24	15
14	Kalmar FF	22	21	36	-15	19
15	Degerfors IF	22	19	34	-15	19
16	Halmstad	22	16	40	-24	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	BK Hacken	22	3.8	0.3	+3.5	36
2	IF Elfsborg	22	3.3	0.3	+3.0	37
3	Kalmar FF	22	3.5	1.8	+1.7	19
4	IFK Goteborg	22	2.9	1.5	+1.4	32
5	AIK Stockholm	22	7.0	6.3	+0.7	33
6	Sirius	22	1.9	1.2	+0.7	51
7	Malmo FF	22	2.6	2.4	+0.2	33
8	IF Brommapojkarna	22	3.1	3.2	-0.1	27
9	Djurgardens IF	22	2.2	2.4	-0.2	41
10	Vasteras SK FK	22	0.6	0.9	-0.3	35
11	Degerfors IF	22	0.7	1.2	-0.5	19
12	Gais	22	1.2	1.9	-0.7	30
13	Hammarby FF	22	0.8	1.8	-1.0	43
14	Mjallby AIF	22	4.0	5.8	-1.8	22
15	Halmstad	22	0.3	3.3	-3.0	14
16	Orgryte IS	22	0.3	3.8	-3.5	15