Statistics / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken

Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken Statistics & Analysis

Kalmar FF Kalmar FF
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.51
5 1.48
xG Accuracy: 25%
BK Hacken BK Hacken
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kalmar FF BK Hacken ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8664863

Closing Odds 2.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result BK Hacken win · Kalmar FF 0–5 BK Hacken
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Kalmar FF (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kalmar FF (1X2) by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kalmar FF (1X2) 37.0 33.5 +3.6
Draw (1X2) 27.2 26.7 +0.6
BK Hacken (1X2) 35.7 39.9 -4.1
Over 2.5 goals 57.5 54.5 +3.0
Under 2.5 goals 42.5 45.5 -3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Kalmar FF (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kalmar FF (1X2) 2.87 2.87 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
BK Hacken (1X2) 2.41 2.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 27.3% · Away 35.7%
  • xG (showing): Kalmar FF 1.51 — BK Hacken 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.99)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14