Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna Statistics & Analysis

Hammarby FF

Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.79

1 0.96

xG Accuracy: 71%

IF Brommapojkarna

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hammarby FF Hammarby FF ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7428051

Closing Odds 1.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hammarby FF win · Hammarby FF 3–1 IF Brommapojkarna

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), IF Brommapojkarna (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 21.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hammarby FF (1X2)	55.5	79.8	-24.4
Draw (1X2)	25.9	12.3	+13.6
IF Brommapojkarna (1X2)	18.6	7.8	+10.8
Over 2.5 goals	51.8	73.1	-21.3
Under 2.5 goals	48.1	26.9	+21.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 26.9%. The difference — about 21.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Hammarby FF (1X2)	1.2	1.2
Draw (1X2)	7.76	7.76
IF Brommapojkarna (1X2)	12.26	12.26
Over 2.5 goals	1.3	1.3
Under 2.5 goals	3.54	3.54

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Allsvenskan
Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 55.5% · Draw 25.9% · Away 18.6%
xG (showing): Hammarby FF 1.79 — IF Brommapojkarna 0.96 (total xG ≈ 2.75)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	45
2	Hammarby FF	21	12	4	5	40
3	Djurgardens IF	20	12	2	6	38
4	IF Elfsborg	21	9	7	5	34
5	Malmo FF	21	10	3	8	33
6	BK Hacken	21	8	9	4	33
7	AIK Stockholm	20	9	5	6	32
8	Vasteras SK FK	21	9	5	7	32
9	IFK Goteborg	21	8	5	8	29
10	Gais	20	7	6	7	27
11	IF Brommapojkarna	21	7	6	8	27
12	Mjallby AIF	20	5	6	9	21
13	Kalmar FF	21	5	4	12	19
14	Degerfors IF	20	5	4	11	19
15	Orgryte IS	21	3	6	12	15
16	Halmstad	21	2	5	14	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hammarby FF	21	48	20	+28	40
2	Sirius	20	48	27	+21	45
3	Djurgardens IF	20	44	19	+25	38
4	Malmo FF	21	37	31	+6	33
5	BK Hacken	21	34	30	+4	33
6	Vasteras SK FK	21	32	35	-3	32
7	IF Brommapojkarna	21	30	35	-5	27
8	IFK Goteborg	21	30	41	-11	29
9	IF Elfsborg	21	29	21	+8	34
10	AIK Stockholm	20	29	31	-2	32
11	Mjallby AIF	20	26	34	-8	21
12	Gais	20	25	18	+7	27
13	Orgryte IS	21	24	47	-23	15
14	Kalmar FF	21	21	31	-10	19
15	Degerfors IF	20	19	31	-12	19
16	Halmstad	21	14	39	-25	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Kalmar FF	21	1.6	0.5	+1.1	19
2	IFK Goteborg	21	1.9	0.9	+1.0	29
3	Malmo FF	21	1.3	0.6	+0.7	33
4	AIK Stockholm	20	0.6	1.3	-0.7	32
5	Mjallby AIF	20	0.9	1.9	-1.0	21
6	Djurgardens IF	20	0.5	1.6	-1.1	38
7	Sirius	20	—	—	—	45
8	Hammarby FF	21	—	—	—	40
9	IF Elfsborg	21	—	—	—	34
10	BK Hacken	21	—	—	—	33
11	Vasteras SK FK	21	—	—	—	32
12	Gais	20	—	—	—	27
13	IF Brommapojkarna	21	—	—	—	27
14	Degerfors IF	20	—	—	—	19
15	Orgryte IS	21	—	—	—	15
16	Halmstad	21	—	—	—	11