Statistics / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF

BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF Statistics & Analysis

BK Hacken BK Hacken
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.72
1 1.81
xG Accuracy: 66%
Mjallby AIF Mjallby AIF
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 BK Hacken Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7032173

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · BK Hacken 1–1 Mjallby AIF
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mjallby AIF (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mjallby AIF (1X2) by about 17.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
BK Hacken (1X2) 40.8 61.6 -20.8
Draw (1X2) 24.6 21.2 +3.4
Mjallby AIF (1X2) 34.6 17.1 +17.5
Over 2.5 goals 68.5 60.0 +8.5
Under 2.5 goals 31.5 40.0 -8.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.6% on Mjallby AIF (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.1%. The difference — about 17.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
BK Hacken (1X2) 1.55 1.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Mjallby AIF (1X2) 5.57 5.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.4 2.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.8% · Draw 24.6% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): BK Hacken 1.72 — Mjallby AIF 1.81 (total xG ≈ 3.53)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 20 14 3 3 45
2 Hammarby FF 21 12 4 5 40
3 Djurgardens IF 20 12 2 6 38
4 IF Elfsborg 21 9 7 5 34
5 Malmo FF 21 10 3 8 33
6 BK Hacken 21 8 9 4 33
7 AIK Stockholm 20 9 5 6 32
8 Vasteras SK FK 21 9 5 7 32
9 IFK Goteborg 21 8 5 8 29
10 Gais 20 7 6 7 27
11 IF Brommapojkarna 21 7 6 8 27
12 Mjallby AIF 20 5 6 9 21
13 Kalmar FF 21 5 4 12 19
14 Degerfors IF 20 5 4 11 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 3 6 12 15
16 Halmstad 21 2 5 14 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby FF 21 48 20 +28 40
2 Sirius 20 48 27 +21 45
3 Djurgardens IF 20 44 19 +25 38
4 Malmo FF 21 37 31 +6 33
5 BK Hacken 21 34 30 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 21 32 35 -3 32
7 IF Brommapojkarna 21 30 35 -5 27
8 IFK Goteborg 21 30 41 -11 29
9 IF Elfsborg 21 29 21 +8 34
10 AIK Stockholm 20 29 31 -2 32
11 Mjallby AIF 20 26 34 -8 21
12 Gais 20 25 18 +7 27
13 Orgryte IS 21 24 47 -23 15
14 Kalmar FF 21 21 31 -10 19
15 Degerfors IF 20 19 31 -12 19
16 Halmstad 21 14 39 -25 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 21 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 21 1.9 0.9 +1.0 29
3 Malmo FF 21 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 20 0.6 1.3 -0.7 32
5 Mjallby AIF 20 0.9 1.9 -1.0 21
6 Djurgardens IF 20 0.5 1.6 -1.1 38
7 Sirius 20 — — — 45
8 Hammarby FF 21 — — — 40
9 IF Elfsborg 21 — — — 34
10 BK Hacken 21 — — — 33
11 Vasteras SK FK 21 — — — 32
12 Gais 20 — — — 27
13 IF Brommapojkarna 21 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 20 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 21 — — — 11
Allsvenskan Sweden. Allsvenskan Predictions