Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF Statistics & Analysis

Orgryte IS

Jul 20, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 49%

Djurgardens IF

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Djurgardens IF Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 09:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1578478

Closing Odds 1.36

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Orgryte IS 0–0 Djurgardens IF

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orgryte IS (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Orgryte IS (1X2)	25.6	12.8	+12.8
Draw (1X2)	26.6	17.1	+9.5
Djurgardens IF (1X2)	47.8	70.1	-22.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.7	-19.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.3	+19.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.3%. The difference — about 19.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Orgryte IS (1X2)	7.47	7.47
Draw (1X2)	5.58	5.58
Djurgardens IF (1X2)	1.36	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	1.41	1.41
Under 2.5 goals	2.95	2.95

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Allsvenskan
Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF
Kickoff: 2026-07-20 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.6% · Draw 26.6% · Away 47.8%
xG (showing): Orgryte IS 1.24 — Djurgardens IF 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Orgryte IS & Djurgardens IF!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Allsvenskan — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sirius	22	16	3	3	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	13	4	5	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	13	2	7	41
4	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	37
5	BK Hacken	22	9	9	4	36
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	10	5	7	35
7	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	33
8	AIK Stockholm	22	9	6	7	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	9	5	8	32
10	Gais	22	8	6	8	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	22	7	6	9	27
12	Mjallby AIF	22	5	7	10	22
13	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	19
14	Degerfors IF	22	5	4	13	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	3	6	13	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sirius	22	52	28	+24	51
2	Hammarby FF	22	49	20	+29	43
3	Djurgardens IF	22	47	21	+26	41
4	BK Hacken	22	39	30	+9	36
5	Malmo FF	22	37	33	+4	33
6	Vasteras SK FK	22	34	35	-1	35
7	IF Elfsborg	22	31	22	+9	37
8	AIK Stockholm	22	31	34	-3	33
9	IFK Goteborg	22	31	41	-10	32
10	IF Brommapojkarna	22	30	36	-6	27
11	Gais	22	28	20	+8	30
12	Mjallby AIF	22	27	38	-11	22
13	Orgryte IS	22	25	49	-24	15
14	Kalmar FF	22	21	36	-15	19
15	Degerfors IF	22	19	34	-15	19
16	Halmstad	22	16	40	-24	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Kalmar FF	22	1.6	0.5	+1.1	19
2	IFK Goteborg	22	1.9	0.9	+1.0	32
3	Malmo FF	22	1.3	0.6	+0.7	33
4	AIK Stockholm	22	3.8	3.2	+0.6	33
5	Djurgardens IF	22	0.5	1.6	-1.1	41
6	Mjallby AIF	22	2.8	5.1	-2.3	22
7	Sirius	22	—	—	—	51
8	Hammarby FF	22	—	—	—	43
9	IF Elfsborg	22	—	—	—	37
10	BK Hacken	22	—	—	—	36
11	Vasteras SK FK	22	—	—	—	35
12	Gais	22	—	—	—	30
13	IF Brommapojkarna	22	—	—	—	27
14	Degerfors IF	22	—	—	—	19
15	Orgryte IS	22	—	—	—	15
16	Halmstad	22	—	—	—	14