Statistics / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK

Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK Statistics & Analysis

Halmstad Halmstad
Jul 04, 2026 - 13:00
1 2.17
3 1.95
xG Accuracy: 54%
Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Halmstad Vasteras SK FK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483907

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds 2.44
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vasteras SK FK win · Halmstad 1–3 Vasteras SK FK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 40.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Halmstad (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 25.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Halmstad (1X2) 41.0 32.1 +8.8
Draw (1X2) 23.2 27.9 -4.7
Vasteras SK FK (1X2) 35.8 40.0 -4.2
Over 2.5 goals 77.9 52.0 +25.9
Under 2.5 goals 22.1 48.0 -25.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 77.9% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.0%. The difference — about 25.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Halmstad (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Vasteras SK FK (1X2) 2.4 2.4 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.9% · Draw 23.2% · Away 35.8%
  • xG (showing): Halmstad 2.17 — Vasteras SK FK 1.95 (total xG ≈ 4.12)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 77.9% · Implied: 51.9% · Probability edge: +26.0 pts · Est. EV: +44.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 20 14 3 3 45
2 Hammarby FF 21 12 4 5 40
3 Djurgardens IF 20 12 2 6 38
4 IF Elfsborg 21 9 7 5 34
5 Malmo FF 21 10 3 8 33
6 BK Hacken 21 8 9 4 33
7 AIK Stockholm 20 9 5 6 32
8 Vasteras SK FK 21 9 5 7 32
9 IFK Goteborg 21 8 5 8 29
10 Gais 20 7 6 7 27
11 IF Brommapojkarna 21 7 6 8 27
12 Mjallby AIF 20 5 6 9 21
13 Kalmar FF 21 5 4 12 19
14 Degerfors IF 20 5 4 11 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 3 6 12 15
16 Halmstad 21 2 5 14 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby FF 21 48 20 +28 40
2 Sirius 20 48 27 +21 45
3 Djurgardens IF 20 44 19 +25 38
4 Malmo FF 21 37 31 +6 33
5 BK Hacken 21 34 30 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 21 32 35 -3 32
7 IF Brommapojkarna 21 30 35 -5 27
8 IFK Goteborg 21 30 41 -11 29
9 IF Elfsborg 21 29 21 +8 34
10 AIK Stockholm 20 29 31 -2 32
11 Mjallby AIF 20 26 34 -8 21
12 Gais 20 25 18 +7 27
13 Orgryte IS 21 24 47 -23 15
14 Kalmar FF 21 21 31 -10 19
15 Degerfors IF 20 19 31 -12 19
16 Halmstad 21 14 39 -25 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 21 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 21 1.9 0.9 +1.0 29
3 Malmo FF 21 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 20 0.6 1.3 -0.7 32
5 Mjallby AIF 20 0.9 1.9 -1.0 21
6 Djurgardens IF 20 0.5 1.6 -1.1 38
7 Sirius 20 — — — 45
8 Hammarby FF 21 — — — 40
9 IF Elfsborg 21 — — — 34
10 BK Hacken 21 — — — 33
11 Vasteras SK FK 21 — — — 32
12 Gais 20 — — — 27
13 IF Brommapojkarna 21 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 20 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 21 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 21 — — — 11
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