Statistics / Football / USA. USL League One / One Knoxville vs Spokane Velocity

One Knoxville vs Spokane Velocity Statistics & Analysis

One Knoxville One Knoxville
Oct 11, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.44
2 1.16
xG Accuracy: 53%
Spokane Velocity Spokane Velocity
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 One Knoxville Spokane Velocity ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13235165

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Spokane Velocity win · One Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.03 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE10 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Spokane Velocity (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
One Knoxville (1X2) 41.9 46.6 -4.7
Draw (1X2) 29.3 27.1 +2.2
Spokane Velocity (1X2) 28.8 26.3 +2.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Spokane Velocity (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.3%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: betmgm us → kto br

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
One Knoxville (1X2) 1.9 1.92 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.3 +1.0
Spokane Velocity (1X2) 3.25 3.4 -1.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: USL League One
  • Fixture: One Knoxville vs Spokane Velocity
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): One Knoxville 1.44 — Spokane Velocity 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One USL League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Omaha 30 19 4 7 61
2 Charlotte Independence 29 18 6 5 60
3 Forward Madison 29 15 7 7 52
4 Boise 30 15 7 8 52
5 One Knoxville 30 14 9 7 51
6 Spokane Velocity 27 14 5 8 47
7 Chattanooga Red Wolves 30 14 4 12 46
8 Fort Wayne 30 12 9 9 45
9 Naples 29 11 4 14 37
10 Corpus Christi 29 9 9 11 36
11 Westchester SC 29 9 6 14 33
12 Sarasota Paradise 28 9 6 13 33
13 Alta 29 8 8 13 32
14 Portland Hearts of Pine 30 7 10 13 31
15 NY Cosmos 28 7 4 17 25
16 Greenville Triumph 28 6 5 17 23
17 Richmond Kickers 29 6 5 18 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 29 67 42 +25 60
2 Union Omaha 30 53 32 +21 61
3 Forward Madison 29 50 27 +23 52
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 30 50 43 +7 46
5 One Knoxville 30 49 34 +15 51
6 Westchester SC 29 48 46 +2 33
7 Boise 30 47 40 +7 52
8 Fort Wayne 30 46 37 +9 45
9 Portland Hearts of Pine 30 44 55 -11 31
10 Spokane Velocity 27 41 36 +5 47
11 Sarasota Paradise 28 39 43 -4 33
12 NY Cosmos 28 36 56 -20 25
13 Alta 29 35 42 -7 32
14 Naples 29 34 44 -10 37
15 Corpus Christi 29 33 43 -10 36
16 Greenville Triumph 28 30 52 -22 23
17 Richmond Kickers 29 30 60 -30 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
USL League One USA. USL League One Predictions