Alta vs Greenville Triumph Statistics & Analysis

Alta

Oct 11, 2026 - 02:30

2 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 68%

Greenville Triumph

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Greenville Triumph Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13185154

Closing Odds 3.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Alta 2–2 Greenville Triumph

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.37 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Greenville Triumph (1X2) by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Alta (1X2)	34.7	40.4	-5.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	30.3	-0.6
Greenville Triumph (1X2)	35.6	29.3	+6.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Greenville Triumph (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.3%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: roobet → winpot

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE5)	Implied Δ (pp)
Alta (1X2)	2.18	2.25	-1.2
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.0	+2.4
Greenville Triumph (1X2)	2.98	3.1	-1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League One
Fixture: Alta vs Greenville Triumph
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 02:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Alta 1.29 — Greenville Triumph 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.8% · Probability edge: +12.0 pts · Est. EV: +25.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

USL League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	60
3	Forward Madison	29	15	7	7	52
4	Boise	30	15	7	8	52
5	One Knoxville	30	14	9	7	51
6	Spokane Velocity	27	14	5	8	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	12	9	9	45
9	Naples	29	11	4	14	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	9	9	11	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	33
13	Alta	29	8	8	13	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	7	4	17	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	6	5	17	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	29	67	42	+25	60
2	Union Omaha	30	53	32	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	29	50	27	+23	52
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	50	43	+7	46
5	One Knoxville	30	49	34	+15	51
6	Westchester SC	29	48	46	+2	33
7	Boise	30	47	40	+7	52
8	Fort Wayne	30	46	37	+9	45
9	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	44	55	-11	31
10	Spokane Velocity	27	41	36	+5	47
11	Sarasota Paradise	28	39	43	-4	33
12	NY Cosmos	28	36	56	-20	25
13	Alta	29	35	42	-7	32
14	Naples	29	34	44	-10	37
15	Corpus Christi	29	33	43	-10	36
16	Greenville Triumph	28	30	52	-22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	30	60	-30	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0