One Knoxville vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Statistics & Analysis

One Knoxville

Oct 07, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.41

0 1.19

xG Accuracy: 47%

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 One Knoxville One Knoxville ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12191318

Closing Odds 1.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result One Knoxville win · One Knoxville 3–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Chattanooga Red Wolves (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chattanooga Red Wolves (1X2) by about 3.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
One Knoxville (1X2)	40.5	47.3	-6.8
Draw (1X2)	29.4	26.4	+3.1
Chattanooga Red Wolves (1X2)	30.1	26.4	+3.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.1% on Chattanooga Red Wolves (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 3.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE5)	Closing (PRE1)
One Knoxville (1X2)	1.95	1.95
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.5
Chattanooga Red Wolves (1X2)	3.5	3.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League One
Fixture: One Knoxville vs Chattanooga Red Wolves
Kickoff: 2026-10-07 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): One Knoxville 1.41 — Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	60
3	Forward Madison	29	15	7	7	52
4	Boise	29	14	7	8	49
5	One Knoxville	29	13	9	7	48
6	Spokane Velocity	27	14	5	8	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	29	14	4	11	46
8	Fort Wayne	28	10	9	9	39
9	Corpus Christi	28	9	9	10	36
10	Naples	28	10	4	14	34
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	33
13	Alta	29	8	8	13	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	7	4	17	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	6	5	17	23
17	Richmond Kickers	28	6	5	17	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	29	67	42	+25	60
2	Union Omaha	29	53	31	+22	61
3	Forward Madison	29	50	27	+23	52
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves	29	50	40	+10	46
5	Westchester SC	29	48	46	+2	33
6	One Knoxville	29	46	34	+12	48
7	Boise	29	45	39	+6	49
8	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	43	53	-10	31
9	Fort Wayne	28	42	36	+6	39
10	Spokane Velocity	27	41	36	+5	47
11	Sarasota Paradise	28	39	43	-4	33
12	NY Cosmos	28	36	56	-20	25
13	Alta	29	35	42	-7	32
14	Corpus Christi	28	32	40	-8	36
15	Naples	28	32	44	-12	34
16	Greenville Triumph	28	30	52	-22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	28	30	58	-28	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0