Statistics / Football / USA. USL League One / Spokane Velocity vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Spokane Velocity vs Portland Hearts of Pine Statistics & Analysis

Spokane Velocity Spokane Velocity
Oct 04, 2026 - 01:00
3 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 39%
Portland Hearts of Pine Portland Hearts of Pine
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Portland Hearts of Pine Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11656156

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Spokane Velocity 3–3 Portland Hearts of Pine
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: USL League One
  • Fixture: Spokane Velocity vs Portland Hearts of Pine
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Spokane Velocity 1.26 — Portland Hearts of Pine 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.2% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One USL League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Omaha 29 19 4 6 61
2 Charlotte Independence 29 18 6 5 60
3 Forward Madison 29 15 7 7 52
4 Boise 29 14 7 8 49
5 One Knoxville 29 13 9 7 48
6 Spokane Velocity 27 14 5 8 47
7 Chattanooga Red Wolves 29 14 4 11 46
8 Fort Wayne 28 10 9 9 39
9 Corpus Christi 28 9 9 10 36
10 Naples 28 10 4 14 34
11 Westchester SC 29 9 6 14 33
12 Sarasota Paradise 28 9 6 13 33
13 Alta 29 8 8 13 32
14 Portland Hearts of Pine 29 7 10 12 31
15 NY Cosmos 28 7 4 17 25
16 Greenville Triumph 28 6 5 17 23
17 Richmond Kickers 28 6 5 17 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 29 67 42 +25 60
2 Union Omaha 29 53 31 +22 61
3 Forward Madison 29 50 27 +23 52
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 29 50 40 +10 46
5 Westchester SC 29 48 46 +2 33
6 One Knoxville 29 46 34 +12 48
7 Boise 29 45 39 +6 49
8 Portland Hearts of Pine 29 43 53 -10 31
9 Fort Wayne 28 42 36 +6 39
10 Spokane Velocity 27 41 36 +5 47
11 Sarasota Paradise 28 39 43 -4 33
12 NY Cosmos 28 36 56 -20 25
13 Alta 29 35 42 -7 32
14 Corpus Christi 28 32 40 -8 36
15 Naples 28 32 44 -12 34
16 Greenville Triumph 28 30 52 -22 23
17 Richmond Kickers 28 30 58 -28 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
USL League One USA. USL League One Predictions