Fort Wayne vs Union Omaha Statistics & Analysis

Fort Wayne

Aug 01, 2026 - 23:30

0 1.22

2 1.38

xG Accuracy: 60%

Union Omaha

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Union Omaha Union Omaha ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1832447

Closing Odds 3.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Union Omaha win · Fort Wayne 0–2 Union Omaha

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Fort Wayne (1X2)	31.5	35.9	-4.4
Draw (1X2)	29.5	24.4	+5.1
Union Omaha (1X2)	39.0	39.6	-0.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.8	-12.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.2	+12.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.2%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Fort Wayne (1X2)	2.55	2.55
Draw (1X2)	3.75	3.75
Union Omaha (1X2)	2.31	2.31
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.37	2.37

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League One
Fixture: Fort Wayne vs Union Omaha
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Fort Wayne 1.22 — Union Omaha 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +22.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	58
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	57
3	Forward Madison	28	15	6	7	51
4	One Knoxville	27	13	8	6	47
5	Boise	27	13	7	7	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	43
7	Spokane Velocity	25	13	4	8	43
8	Fort Wayne	27	10	8	9	38
9	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	33
10	Corpus Christi	26	8	9	9	33
11	Alta	28	8	8	12	32
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	29
14	Naples	26	8	4	14	28
15	Greenville Triumph	26	6	5	15	23
16	NY Cosmos	26	6	4	16	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	20
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	28	64	40	+24	57
2	Forward Madison	28	50	27	+23	51
3	Union Omaha	28	50	30	+20	58
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	47	38	+9	43
5	Westchester SC	27	46	45	+1	29
6	One Knoxville	27	44	31	+13	47
7	Boise	27	43	37	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	27	42	36	+6	38
9	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	40	50	-10	30
10	Spokane Velocity	25	37	33	+4	43
11	Sarasota Paradise	27	37	40	-3	33
12	Alta	28	34	40	-6	32
13	NY Cosmos	26	32	52	-20	22
14	Corpus Christi	26	30	36	-6	33
15	Naples	26	29	43	-14	28
16	Greenville Triumph	26	29	48	-19	23
17	Richmond Kickers	26	25	53	-28	20
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0