Statistics / Football / USA. USL Championship / Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs

Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs Statistics & Analysis

Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic
Oct 11, 2026 - 02:00
1 1.45
1 1.15
xG Accuracy: 85%
Colorado Springs Colorado Springs
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sacramento Republic Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13185014

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: USL Championship
  • Fixture: Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Sacramento Republic 1.45 — Colorado Springs 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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USL Championship USL Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampa Bay Rowdies 27 15 7 5 52
1 Orange County SC 16 7 7 2 28
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 47
2 San Antonio 16 6 7 3 25
3 Charleston Battery 27 14 4 9 46
3 New Mexico United 14 7 3 4 24
4 Louisville City 27 11 7 9 40
4 Colorado Springs 15 6 4 5 22
5 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 39
5 FC Tulsa 14 6 4 4 22
6 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 38
6 Lexington 15 6 3 6 21
7 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 38
7 Oakland Roots 16 5 6 5 21
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 36
8 Sacramento Republic 14 5 5 4 20
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 34
9 Phoenix Rising 16 5 5 6 20
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 24
10 El Paso Locomotive 15 5 4 6 19
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 23
11 Las Vegas Lights 15 5 3 7 18
12 Brooklyn 27 4 6 17 18
12 Monterey Bay 16 4 3 9 15
13 Sporting JAX 27 3 5 19 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charleston Battery 27 52 33 +19 46
2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 27 46 25 +21 52
3 Louisville City 27 45 42 +3 40
4 Rhode Island 26 39 29 +10 38
5 Miami FC 28 38 45 -7 36
6 Birmingham Legion 26 36 43 -7 23
7 Detroit City 27 33 20 +13 47
8 Indy Eleven 27 33 33 0 34
9 Loudoun United 26 32 44 -12 24
10 Sporting JAX 27 32 73 -41 14
11 Hartford Athletic 26 29 26 +3 39
12 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 28 27 +1 38
13 Brooklyn 27 27 55 -28 18
14 Colorado Springs 15 26 22 +4 22
15 Orange County SC 16 25 18 +7 28
16 El Paso Locomotive 15 25 25 0 19
17 Lexington 15 24 20 +4 21
18 Oakland Roots 16 24 24 0 21
19 Phoenix Rising 16 23 24 -1 20
20 Las Vegas Lights 15 23 26 -3 18
21 San Antonio 16 21 19 +2 25
22 New Mexico United 14 19 15 +4 24
23 FC Tulsa 14 18 16 +2 22
24 Sacramento Republic 14 16 14 +2 20
25 Monterey Bay 16 16 25 -9 15
USL Championship USA. USL Championship Predictions