Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights Statistics & Analysis

Orange County SC

Sep 13, 2026 - 02:00

0 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 53%

Las Vegas Lights

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Orange County SC Las Vegas Lights ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419384

Closing Odds 2.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Las Vegas Lights win · Orange County SC 0–2 Las Vegas Lights

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orange County SC (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Orange County SC (1X2)	41.9	40.5	+1.3
Draw (1X2)	29.3	24.7	+4.7
Las Vegas Lights (1X2)	28.8	34.8	-6.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.4	-10.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.6	+10.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.6%. The difference — about 10.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Orange County SC (1X2)	2.35	2.35	0.0
Draw (1X2)	3.86	3.86	0.0
Las Vegas Lights (1X2)	2.74	2.74	0.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.63	-0.3
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.29	+0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL Championship
Fixture: Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 02:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Orange County SC 1.44 — Las Vegas Lights 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

USL Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	23	14	6	3	48
1	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	28
2	Charleston Battery	23	12	3	8	39
2	San Antonio	16	6	7	3	25
3	Detroit City	22	10	7	5	37
3	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	24
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	24	10	5	9	35
4	Colorado Springs	15	6	4	5	22
5	Louisville City	23	9	6	8	33
5	FC Tulsa	14	6	4	4	22
6	Hartford Athletic	22	7	10	5	31
6	Lexington	15	6	3	6	21
7	Indy Eleven	22	8	6	8	30
7	Oakland Roots	16	5	6	5	21
8	Rhode Island	21	8	5	8	29
8	Sacramento Republic	14	5	5	4	20
9	Miami FC	23	5	8	10	23
9	Phoenix Rising	16	5	5	6	20
10	Loudoun United	22	3	11	8	20
10	El Paso Locomotive	15	5	4	6	19
11	Birmingham Legion	21	3	9	9	18
11	Las Vegas Lights	15	5	3	7	18
12	Brooklyn	21	4	4	13	16
12	Monterey Bay	16	4	3	9	15
13	Sporting JAX	23	3	5	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charleston Battery	23	47	29	+18	39
2	Tampa Bay Rowdies	23	40	20	+20	48
3	Louisville City	23	38	37	+1	33
4	Rhode Island	21	31	24	+7	29
5	Sporting JAX	23	30	60	-30	14
6	Detroit City	22	28	18	+10	37
7	Indy Eleven	22	28	28	0	30
8	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	24	27	25	+2	35
9	Miami FC	23	27	41	-14	23
10	Colorado Springs	15	26	22	+4	22
11	Birmingham Legion	21	26	32	-6	18
12	Loudoun United	22	26	39	-13	20
13	Orange County SC	16	25	18	+7	28
14	El Paso Locomotive	15	25	25	0	19
15	Lexington	15	24	20	+4	21
16	Oakland Roots	16	24	24	0	21
17	Phoenix Rising	16	23	24	-1	20
18	Las Vegas Lights	15	23	26	-3	18
19	Brooklyn	21	22	38	-16	16
20	San Antonio	16	21	19	+2	25
21	Hartford Athletic	22	21	22	-1	31
22	New Mexico United	14	19	15	+4	24
23	FC Tulsa	14	18	16	+2	22
24	Sacramento Republic	14	16	14	+2	20
25	Monterey Bay	16	16	25	-9	15