Statistics / Football / USA. USL Championship / Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery Statistics & Analysis

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Aug 15, 2026 - 23:00
3 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Charleston Battery Charleston Battery
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Charleston Battery Pittsburgh Riverhounds ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3369587

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pittsburgh Riverhounds win · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–1 Charleston Battery
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 2.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1X2) 34.2 35.7 -1.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 28.5 +1.2
Charleston Battery (1X2) 36.1 35.8 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.2 +2.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.8 -2.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.2%. The difference — about 2.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.35 3.35 0.0
Charleston Battery (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: USL Championship
  • Fixture: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.28 — Charleston Battery 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
USL Championship USL Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampa Bay Rowdies 23 14 6 3 48
1 Orange County SC 16 7 7 2 28
2 Charleston Battery 23 12 3 8 39
2 San Antonio 16 6 7 3 25
3 Detroit City 22 10 7 5 37
3 New Mexico United 14 7 3 4 24
4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 24 10 5 9 35
4 Colorado Springs 15 6 4 5 22
5 Louisville City 23 9 6 8 33
5 FC Tulsa 14 6 4 4 22
6 Hartford Athletic 22 7 10 5 31
6 Lexington 15 6 3 6 21
7 Indy Eleven 22 8 6 8 30
7 Oakland Roots 16 5 6 5 21
8 Rhode Island 21 8 5 8 29
8 Sacramento Republic 14 5 5 4 20
9 Miami FC 23 5 8 10 23
9 Phoenix Rising 16 5 5 6 20
10 Loudoun United 22 3 11 8 20
10 El Paso Locomotive 15 5 4 6 19
11 Birmingham Legion 21 3 9 9 18
11 Las Vegas Lights 15 5 3 7 18
12 Brooklyn 21 4 4 13 16
12 Monterey Bay 16 4 3 9 15
13 Sporting JAX 23 3 5 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charleston Battery 23 47 29 +18 39
2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 23 40 20 +20 48
3 Louisville City 23 38 37 +1 33
4 Rhode Island 21 31 24 +7 29
5 Sporting JAX 23 30 60 -30 14
6 Detroit City 22 28 18 +10 37
7 Indy Eleven 22 28 28 0 30
8 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 24 27 25 +2 35
9 Miami FC 23 27 41 -14 23
10 Colorado Springs 15 26 22 +4 22
11 Birmingham Legion 21 26 32 -6 18
12 Loudoun United 22 26 39 -13 20
13 Orange County SC 16 25 18 +7 28
14 El Paso Locomotive 15 25 25 0 19
15 Lexington 15 24 20 +4 21
16 Oakland Roots 16 24 24 0 21
17 Phoenix Rising 16 23 24 -1 20
18 Las Vegas Lights 15 23 26 -3 18
19 Brooklyn 21 22 38 -16 16
20 San Antonio 16 21 19 +2 25
21 Hartford Athletic 22 21 22 -1 31
22 New Mexico United 14 19 15 +4 24
23 FC Tulsa 14 18 16 +2 22
24 Sacramento Republic 14 16 14 +2 20
25 Monterey Bay 16 16 25 -9 15
USL Championship USA. USL Championship Predictions