Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Brooklyn Statistics & Analysis

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Jul 04, 2026 - 23:00

0 1.38

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 55%

⚽

Brooklyn

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Brooklyn ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1466066

Closing Odds 1.68

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Brooklyn win · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0–2 Brooklyn

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Brooklyn (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Brooklyn (1X2) by about 8.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1X2)	43.9	56.5	-12.6
Draw (1X2)	28.7	25.0	+3.7
Brooklyn (1X2)	27.4	18.5	+8.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.1	-0.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.9	+0.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.4% on Brooklyn (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 8.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1X2)	1.68	1.68
Draw (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Brooklyn (1X2)	5.14	5.14
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL Championship
Fixture: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Brooklyn
Kickoff: 2026-07-04 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 27.4%
xG (showing): Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.38 — Brooklyn 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

USL Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	25	15	6	4	51
1	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	28
2	Charleston Battery	25	13	4	8	43
2	San Antonio	16	6	7	3	25
3	Detroit City	25	11	8	6	41
3	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	24
4	Hartford Athletic	26	9	12	5	39
4	Colorado Springs	15	6	4	5	22
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	26	11	5	10	38
5	FC Tulsa	14	6	4	4	22
6	Louisville City	26	10	7	9	37
6	Lexington	15	6	3	6	21
7	Indy Eleven	25	9	6	10	33
7	Oakland Roots	16	5	6	5	21
8	Rhode Island	23	9	5	9	32
8	Sacramento Republic	14	5	5	4	20
9	Miami FC	26	7	9	10	30
9	Phoenix Rising	16	5	5	6	20
10	Birmingham Legion	25	4	11	10	23
10	El Paso Locomotive	15	5	4	6	19
11	Loudoun United	25	4	11	10	23
11	Las Vegas Lights	15	5	3	7	18
12	Brooklyn	25	4	6	15	18
12	Monterey Bay	16	4	3	9	15
13	Sporting JAX	26	3	5	18	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charleston Battery	25	50	31	+19	43
2	Tampa Bay Rowdies	25	45	23	+22	51
3	Louisville City	26	43	42	+1	37
4	Birmingham Legion	25	36	42	-6	23
5	Rhode Island	23	35	26	+9	32
6	Indy Eleven	25	32	31	+1	33
7	Miami FC	26	32	43	-11	30
8	Loudoun United	25	31	43	-12	23
9	Sporting JAX	26	31	69	-38	14
10	Detroit City	25	29	19	+10	41
11	Hartford Athletic	26	29	26	+3	39
12	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	26	28	26	+2	38
13	Colorado Springs	15	26	22	+4	22
14	Orange County SC	16	25	18	+7	28
15	El Paso Locomotive	15	25	25	0	19
16	Brooklyn	25	25	49	-24	18
17	Lexington	15	24	20	+4	21
18	Oakland Roots	16	24	24	0	21
19	Phoenix Rising	16	23	24	-1	20
20	Las Vegas Lights	15	23	26	-3	18
21	San Antonio	16	21	19	+2	25
22	New Mexico United	14	19	15	+4	24
23	FC Tulsa	14	18	16	+2	22
24	Sacramento Republic	14	16	14	+2	20
25	Monterey Bay	16	16	25	-9	15