Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman Statistics & Analysis

Gimnasia L.P.

Oct 09, 2026 - 21:00

1 1.21

1 0.75

xG Accuracy: 88%

Atletico Tucuman

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Gimnasia L.P. Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13236511

Closing Odds 3.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Gimnasia L.P. 1–1 Atletico Tucuman

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Gimnasia L.P. (1X2)	45.3	49.3	-4.0
Draw (1X2)	33.5	28.4	+5.1
Atletico Tucuman (1X2)	21.3	22.3	-1.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Gimnasia L.P. (1X2)	1.91	1.9	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3	-0.1
Atletico Tucuman (1X2)	4.2	4.2	-0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Profesional Argentina
Fixture: Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 33.5% · Away 21.3%
xG (showing): Gimnasia L.P. 1.21 — Atletico Tucuman 0.75 (total xG ≈ 1.96)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 68.8% · Implied: 58.9% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +12.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 38.7% · No 61.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Gimnasia L.P. & Atletico Tucuman!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Independiente	16	24	20	+4	24
2	Union Santa Fe	16	24	20	+4	21
3	Boca Juniors	16	22	9	+13	30
4	Estudiantes L.P.	16	19	7	+12	31
5	Velez Sarsfield	16	18	12	+6	28
6	Lanus	16	18	15	+3	24
7	Defensa Y Justicia	16	18	21	-3	19
8	Talleres Cordoba	16	17	13	+4	26
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	17	17	0	21
10	Newells Old Boys	16	15	27	-12	15
11	San Lorenzo	16	14	14	0	22
12	Gimnasia M.	16	14	22	-8	19
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	11	21	-10	16
14	Platense	16	10	15	-5	16
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	5	12	-7	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	16	14.9	6.7	+8.2	21
2	Lanus	16	14.5	10.2	+4.3	24
3	Boca Juniors	16	10.9	6.7	+4.2	30
4	Union Santa Fe	16	11.5	8.3	+3.2	21
5	Defensa Y Justicia	16	14.0	10.9	+3.1	19
6	Deportivo Riestra	16	11.1	8.6	+2.5	11
7	Estudiantes L.P.	16	14.6	12.8	+1.8	31
8	Independiente	16	8.9	9.4	-0.5	24
9	Newells Old Boys	16	7.5	8.7	-1.2	15
10	Gimnasia M.	16	9.0	11.0	-2.0	19
11	Platense	16	7.9	10.6	-2.7	16
12	Talleres Cordoba	16	10.8	13.8	-3.0	26
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	12.4	15.6	-3.2	16
14	San Lorenzo	16	6.3	10.1	-3.8	22
15	Velez Sarsfield	16	6.7	11.8	-5.1	28