Statistics / Football / Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina / Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Statistics & Analysis

Aldosivi Aldosivi
Oct 09, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.02
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 62%
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13236373

Closing Odds 3.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sarmiento Junin win · Aldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.37 percentage points on Sarmiento Junin (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sarmiento Junin (1X2) by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Aldosivi (1X2) 30.8 39.2 -8.4
Draw (1X2) 31.6 33.0 -1.4
Sarmiento Junin (1X2) 37.6 27.7 +9.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Sarmiento Junin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.7%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betfair → bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Aldosivi (1X2) 2.5 2.4 +2.2
Draw (1X2) 3.1 2.85 +3.2
Sarmiento Junin (1X2) 2.8 3.4 -5.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Profesional Argentina
  • Fixture: Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.8% · Draw 31.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Aldosivi 1.02 — Sarmiento Junin 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.27)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Profesional Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16 9 4 3 31
2 Boca Juniors 16 8 6 2 30
3 Velez Sarsfield 16 7 7 2 28
4 Talleres Cordoba 16 7 5 4 26
5 Independiente 16 6 6 4 24
6 Lanus 16 6 6 4 24
7 San Lorenzo 16 5 7 4 22
8 Union Santa Fe 16 5 6 5 21
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 6 3 7 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16 4 7 5 19
11 Gimnasia M. 16 5 4 7 19
12 Platense 16 3 7 6 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 4 4 8 16
14 Newells Old Boys 16 3 6 7 15
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 1 8 7 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente 16 24 20 +4 24
2 Union Santa Fe 16 24 20 +4 21
3 Boca Juniors 16 22 9 +13 30
4 Estudiantes L.P. 16 19 7 +12 31
5 Velez Sarsfield 16 18 12 +6 28
6 Lanus 16 18 15 +3 24
7 Defensa Y Justicia 16 18 21 -3 19
8 Talleres Cordoba 16 17 13 +4 26
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 17 17 0 21
10 Newells Old Boys 16 15 27 -12 15
11 San Lorenzo 16 14 14 0 22
12 Gimnasia M. 16 14 22 -8 19
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 11 21 -10 16
14 Platense 16 10 15 -5 16
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 5 12 -7 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Instituto Cordoba 16 14.9 6.7 +8.2 21
2 Boca Juniors 16 10.9 6.7 +4.2 30
3 Lanus 16 12.8 9.6 +3.2 24
4 Union Santa Fe 16 11.5 8.3 +3.2 21
5 Defensa Y Justicia 16 14.0 10.9 +3.1 19
6 Deportivo Riestra 16 11.1 8.7 +2.4 11
7 Estudiantes L.P. 16 14.6 12.8 +1.8 31
8 Gimnasia M. 16 8.7 8.6 +0.1 19
9 Independiente 16 8.1 9.1 -1.0 24
10 Talleres Cordoba 16 10.4 13.0 -2.6 26
11 Platense 16 7.9 10.6 -2.7 16
12 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 12.4 15.6 -3.2 16
13 Newells Old Boys 16 5.1 8.3 -3.2 15
14 San Lorenzo 16 6.3 10.1 -3.8 22
15 Velez Sarsfield 16 6.1 10.1 -4.0 28
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions