Statistics / Football / Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina / Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Statistics & Analysis

Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia
Oct 03, 2026 - 17:45
3 1.42
0 0.65
xG Accuracy: 54%
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Defensa Y Justicia Defensa Y Justicia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11257315

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Defensa Y Justicia win · Defensa Y Justicia 3–0 San Lorenzo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Profesional Argentina
  • Fixture: Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.7% · Draw 30.8% · Away 17.4%
  • xG (showing): Defensa Y Justicia 1.42 — San Lorenzo 0.65 (total xG ≈ 2.07)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 62.2% · Implied: 55.3% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 37.8% · No 62.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Profesional Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16 9 4 3 31
2 Boca Juniors 16 8 6 2 30
3 Velez Sarsfield 16 7 7 2 28
4 Talleres Cordoba 16 7 5 4 26
5 Independiente 16 6 6 4 24
6 Lanus 16 6 6 4 24
7 San Lorenzo 16 5 7 4 22
8 Union Santa Fe 16 5 6 5 21
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 6 3 7 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16 4 7 5 19
11 Gimnasia M. 16 5 4 7 19
12 Platense 16 3 7 6 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 4 4 8 16
14 Newells Old Boys 16 3 6 7 15
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 1 8 7 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente 16 24 20 +4 24
2 Union Santa Fe 16 24 20 +4 21
3 Boca Juniors 16 22 9 +13 30
4 Estudiantes L.P. 16 19 7 +12 31
5 Velez Sarsfield 16 18 12 +6 28
6 Lanus 16 18 15 +3 24
7 Defensa Y Justicia 16 18 21 -3 19
8 Talleres Cordoba 16 17 13 +4 26
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 17 17 0 21
10 Newells Old Boys 16 15 27 -12 15
11 San Lorenzo 16 14 14 0 22
12 Gimnasia M. 16 14 22 -8 19
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 11 21 -10 16
14 Platense 16 10 15 -5 16
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 5 12 -7 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Instituto Cordoba 16 14.9 6.7 +8.2 21
2 Boca Juniors 16 10.9 6.7 +4.2 30
3 Lanus 16 12.8 9.6 +3.2 24
4 Union Santa Fe 16 11.5 8.3 +3.2 21
5 Defensa Y Justicia 16 14.0 10.9 +3.1 19
6 Deportivo Riestra 16 9.7 7.2 +2.5 11
7 Estudiantes L.P. 16 12.1 9.8 +2.3 31
8 Gimnasia M. 16 8.7 8.6 +0.1 19
9 Independiente 16 8.1 9.1 -1.0 24
10 Talleres Cordoba 16 10.4 13.0 -2.6 26
11 Newells Old Boys 16 5.1 8.3 -3.2 15
12 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 9.4 13.1 -3.7 16
13 Platense 16 6.3 10.2 -3.9 16
14 San Lorenzo 16 4.8 8.7 -3.9 22
15 Velez Sarsfield 16 6.1 10.1 -4.0 28
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions