Statistics / Football / Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina / Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus

Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra
Sep 14, 2026 - 22:00
0 0.89
3 0.81
xG Accuracy: 43%
Lanus Lanus
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Lanus ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7574179

Closing Odds 2.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lanus win · Deportivo Riestra 0–3 Lanus
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.67 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Riestra (1X2) by about 4.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Riestra (1X2) 33.5 29.1 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 37.4 35.5 +2.0
Lanus (1X2) 29.1 35.5 -6.4
Over 2.5 goals 24.3 27.8 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 75.7 72.2 +3.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.5% on Deportivo Riestra (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.1%. The difference — about 4.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Riestra (1X2) 3.38 3.33 +0.4
Draw (1X2) 2.68 2.73 -0.7
Lanus (1X2) 2.75 2.73 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 3.47 3.45 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.33 1.33 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Profesional Argentina
  • Fixture: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.5% · Draw 37.4% · Away 29.0%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Riestra 0.89 — Lanus 0.81 (total xG ≈ 1.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 75.7% · Implied: 70.5% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (18.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Profesional Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16 9 4 3 31
2 Boca Juniors 16 8 6 2 30
3 Velez Sarsfield 16 7 7 2 28
4 Talleres Cordoba 16 7 5 4 26
5 Independiente 16 6 6 4 24
6 Lanus 16 6 6 4 24
7 San Lorenzo 16 5 7 4 22
8 Union Santa Fe 16 5 6 5 21
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 6 3 7 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16 4 7 5 19
11 Gimnasia M. 16 5 4 7 19
12 Platense 16 3 7 6 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 4 4 8 16
14 Newells Old Boys 16 3 6 7 15
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 1 8 7 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente 16 24 20 +4 24
2 Union Santa Fe 16 24 20 +4 21
3 Boca Juniors 16 22 9 +13 30
4 Estudiantes L.P. 16 19 7 +12 31
5 Velez Sarsfield 16 18 12 +6 28
6 Lanus 16 18 15 +3 24
7 Defensa Y Justicia 16 18 21 -3 19
8 Talleres Cordoba 16 17 13 +4 26
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 17 17 0 21
10 Newells Old Boys 16 15 27 -12 15
11 San Lorenzo 16 14 14 0 22
12 Gimnasia M. 16 14 22 -8 19
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 11 21 -10 16
14 Platense 16 10 15 -5 16
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 5 12 -7 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Instituto Cordoba 16 14.2 5.0 +9.2 21
2 Defensa Y Justicia 16 11.9 8.5 +3.4 19
3 Lanus 16 12.8 9.6 +3.2 24
4 Boca Juniors 16 9.2 6.0 +3.2 30
5 Union Santa Fe 16 9.1 6.2 +2.9 21
6 Deportivo Riestra 16 9.7 7.2 +2.5 11
7 Estudiantes L.P. 16 12.1 9.8 +2.3 31
8 Gimnasia M. 16 8.7 8.6 +0.1 19
9 Independiente 16 8.1 9.1 -1.0 24
10 Talleres Cordoba 16 10.4 13.0 -2.6 26
11 Newells Old Boys 16 5.1 8.3 -3.2 15
12 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 9.4 13.1 -3.7 16
13 Platense 16 6.3 10.2 -3.9 16
14 San Lorenzo 16 4.8 8.7 -3.9 22
15 Velez Sarsfield 16 6.1 10.1 -4.0 28
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