Aldosivi vs Banfield Statistics & Analysis

Aldosivi

Sep 05, 2026 - 16:30

3 1.38

1 1.41

xG Accuracy: 57%

Banfield

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Banfield Aldosivi ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6373376

Closing Odds 3.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Aldosivi win · Aldosivi 3–1 Banfield

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Banfield (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Aldosivi (1X2)	35.1	36.1	-1.1
Draw (1X2)	28.4	32.2	-3.8
Banfield (1X2)	36.5	31.7	+4.8
Over 2.5 goals	52.8	37.3	+15.5
Under 2.5 goals	47.2	62.7	-15.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 52.8% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 15.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Aldosivi (1X2)	2.68	2.68
Draw (1X2)	3.01	3.01
Banfield (1X2)	3.06	3.06
Over 2.5 goals	2.59	2.59
Under 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Profesional Argentina
Fixture: Aldosivi vs Banfield
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.1% · Draw 28.4% · Away 36.5%
xG (showing): Aldosivi 1.38 — Banfield 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 52.8% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +45.2%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Aldosivi & Banfield!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Independiente	16	24	20	+4	24
2	Union Santa Fe	16	24	20	+4	21
3	Boca Juniors	16	22	9	+13	30
4	Estudiantes L.P.	16	19	7	+12	31
5	Velez Sarsfield	16	18	12	+6	28
6	Lanus	16	18	15	+3	24
7	Defensa Y Justicia	16	18	21	-3	19
8	Talleres Cordoba	16	17	13	+4	26
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	17	17	0	21
10	Newells Old Boys	16	15	27	-12	15
11	San Lorenzo	16	14	14	0	22
12	Gimnasia M.	16	14	22	-8	19
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	11	21	-10	16
14	Platense	16	10	15	-5	16
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	5	12	-7	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	16	13.1	4.6	+8.5	21
2	Lanus	16	11.6	8.1	+3.5	24
3	Defensa Y Justicia	16	9.9	6.9	+3.0	19
4	Deportivo Riestra	16	9.3	6.4	+2.9	11
5	Estudiantes L.P.	16	10.6	8.6	+2.0	31
6	Union Santa Fe	16	7.8	5.9	+1.9	21
7	Boca Juniors	16	7.1	5.8	+1.3	30
8	Independiente	16	7.8	7.8	0.0	24
9	Gimnasia M.	16	7.9	8.2	-0.3	19
10	Talleres Cordoba	16	10.0	11.9	-1.9	26
11	San Lorenzo	16	4.6	6.5	-1.9	22
12	Platense	16	6.1	9.2	-3.1	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	7.8	11.1	-3.3	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	4.2	8.1	-3.9	15
15	Velez Sarsfield	16	6.1	10.1	-4.0	28