Statistics / Football / Argentina. Liga Profesional Argentina / Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba Statistics & Analysis

Central Cordoba de Santiago Central Cordoba de Santiago
Aug 16, 2026 - 23:15
0 0.73
1 1.55
xG Accuracy: 70%
Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Instituto Cordoba Instituto Cordoba ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3646372

Closing Odds 2.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Instituto Cordoba win · Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Instituto Cordoba
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Instituto Cordoba (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Instituto Cordoba (1X2) by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Central Cordoba de Santiago (1X2) 16.0 24.7 -8.6
Draw (1X2) 28.5 32.0 -3.5
Instituto Cordoba (1X2) 55.5 43.3 +12.2
Over 2.5 goals 39.9 34.4 +5.5
Under 2.5 goals 60.1 65.6 -5.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 55.5% on Instituto Cordoba (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 43.3%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Central Cordoba de Santiago (1X2) 3.92 3.92 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Instituto Cordoba (1X2) 2.23 2.23 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.8 2.8 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Profesional Argentina
  • Fixture: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 23:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 16.0% · Draw 28.5% · Away 55.5%
  • xG (showing): Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.73 — Instituto Cordoba 1.55 (total xG ≈ 2.28)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.9% · Implied: 35.8% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +11.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.3% · No 57.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Profesional Argentina Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estudiantes L.P. 16 9 4 3 31
2 Boca Juniors 16 8 6 2 30
3 Velez Sarsfield 16 7 7 2 28
4 Talleres Cordoba 16 7 5 4 26
5 Independiente 16 6 6 4 24
6 Lanus 16 6 6 4 24
7 San Lorenzo 16 5 7 4 22
8 Union Santa Fe 16 5 6 5 21
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 6 3 7 21
10 Defensa Y Justicia 16 4 7 5 19
11 Gimnasia M. 16 5 4 7 19
12 Platense 16 3 7 6 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 4 4 8 16
14 Newells Old Boys 16 3 6 7 15
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 1 8 7 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente 16 24 20 +4 24
2 Union Santa Fe 16 24 20 +4 21
3 Boca Juniors 16 22 9 +13 30
4 Estudiantes L.P. 16 19 7 +12 31
5 Velez Sarsfield 16 18 12 +6 28
6 Lanus 16 18 15 +3 24
7 Defensa Y Justicia 16 18 21 -3 19
8 Talleres Cordoba 16 17 13 +4 26
9 Instituto Cordoba 16 17 17 0 21
10 Newells Old Boys 16 15 27 -12 15
11 San Lorenzo 16 14 14 0 22
12 Gimnasia M. 16 14 22 -8 19
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 11 21 -10 16
14 Platense 16 10 15 -5 16
15 Deportivo Riestra 16 5 12 -7 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Instituto Cordoba 16 13.1 4.6 +8.5 21
2 Lanus 16 11.6 8.1 +3.5 24
3 Defensa Y Justicia 16 9.9 6.9 +3.0 19
4 Deportivo Riestra 16 9.3 6.4 +2.9 11
5 Estudiantes L.P. 16 10.6 8.6 +2.0 31
6 Union Santa Fe 16 7.8 5.9 +1.9 21
7 Boca Juniors 16 7.1 5.8 +1.3 30
8 Independiente 16 7.8 7.8 0.0 24
9 Gimnasia M. 16 7.9 8.2 -0.3 19
10 Talleres Cordoba 16 10.0 11.9 -1.9 26
11 San Lorenzo 16 4.6 6.5 -1.9 22
12 Platense 16 6.1 9.2 -3.1 16
13 Central Cordoba de Santiago 16 7.8 11.1 -3.3 16
14 Newells Old Boys 16 4.2 8.1 -3.9 15
15 Velez Sarsfield 16 6.1 10.1 -4.0 28
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