Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin Statistics & Analysis

Banfield

Jul 28, 2026 - 22:00

3 1.97

2 1.05

xG Accuracy: 58%

Sarmiento Junin

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Banfield Banfield ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1459782

Closing Odds 2.1

AI Fair Odds 1.56

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Banfield win · Banfield 3–2 Sarmiento Junin

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

Expected: 64.1%
Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Banfield (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 21.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Banfield (1X2)	57.4	46.0	+11.4
Draw (1X2)	24.2	31.3	-7.1
Sarmiento Junin (1X2)	18.4	22.7	-4.4
Over 2.5 goals	58.1	36.9	+21.2
Under 2.5 goals	41.9	63.1	-21.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 58.1% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.9%. The difference — about 21.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Banfield (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Draw (1X2)	3.09	3.09
Sarmiento Junin (1X2)	4.25	4.25
Over 2.5 goals	2.62	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Profesional Argentina
Fixture: Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin
Kickoff: 2026-07-28 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 57.4% · Draw 24.2% · Away 18.4%
xG (showing): Banfield 1.97 — Sarmiento Junin 1.05 (total xG ≈ 3.02)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 58.1% · Implied: 36.8% · Probability edge: +21.3 pts · Est. EV: +65.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 57.2% · No 42.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Profesional Argentina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Independiente	16	24	20	+4	24
2	Union Santa Fe	16	24	20	+4	21
3	Boca Juniors	16	22	9	+13	30
4	Estudiantes L.P.	16	19	7	+12	31
5	Velez Sarsfield	16	18	12	+6	28
6	Lanus	16	18	15	+3	24
7	Defensa Y Justicia	16	18	21	-3	19
8	Talleres Cordoba	16	17	13	+4	26
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	17	17	0	21
10	Newells Old Boys	16	15	27	-12	15
11	San Lorenzo	16	14	14	0	22
12	Gimnasia M.	16	14	22	-8	19
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	11	21	-10	16
14	Platense	16	10	15	-5	16
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	5	12	-7	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Instituto Cordoba	16	14.2	5.0	+9.2	21
2	Defensa Y Justicia	16	11.9	8.5	+3.4	19
3	Lanus	16	12.8	9.6	+3.2	24
4	Boca Juniors	16	9.2	6.0	+3.2	30
5	Union Santa Fe	16	9.1	6.2	+2.9	21
6	Deportivo Riestra	16	9.7	7.2	+2.5	11
7	Estudiantes L.P.	16	12.1	9.8	+2.3	31
8	Gimnasia M.	16	8.7	8.6	+0.1	19
9	Independiente	16	8.1	9.1	-1.0	24
10	Talleres Cordoba	16	10.4	13.0	-2.6	26
11	Newells Old Boys	16	5.1	8.3	-3.2	15
12	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	9.4	13.1	-3.7	16
13	Platense	16	6.3	10.2	-3.9	16
14	San Lorenzo	16	4.8	8.7	-3.9	22
15	Velez Sarsfield	16	6.1	10.1	-4.0	28