UCD vs Cobh Ramblers Statistics & Analysis

UCD

Jun 26, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.30

0 1.30

xG Accuracy: 58%

Cobh Ramblers

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 UCD UCD ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1465392

Closing Odds 1.98

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result UCD win · UCD 2–0 Cobh Ramblers

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cobh Ramblers (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Cobh Ramblers (1X2) by about 6.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
UCD (1X2)	39.0	48.0	-9.1
Draw (1X2)	28.9	26.6	+2.2
Cobh Ramblers (1X2)	32.2	25.3	+6.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	53.3	-5.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	46.7	+5.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.2% on Cobh Ramblers (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 6.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
UCD (1X2)	1.98	1.98
Draw (1X2)	3.57	3.57
Cobh Ramblers (1X2)	3.76	3.76
Over 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	2.04	2.04

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: First Division
Fixture: UCD vs Cobh Ramblers
Kickoff: 2026-06-26 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 28.8% · Away 32.2%
xG (showing): UCD 1.3 — Cobh Ramblers 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cork City	32	22	5	5	71
2	Bray Wanderers	32	14	8	10	50
3	UCD	32	14	7	11	49
4	Cobh Ramblers	32	13	6	13	45
5	Longford Town	32	12	8	12	44
6	Athlone Town	32	12	8	12	44
7	Kerry	32	11	9	12	42
8	Wexford	32	11	7	14	40
9	Treaty United	32	8	9	15	33
10	Finn Harps	32	6	7	19	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cork City	32	69	30	+39	71
2	Bray Wanderers	32	61	44	+17	50
3	UCD	32	56	45	+11	49
4	Longford Town	32	42	41	+1	44
5	Kerry	32	39	39	0	42
6	Cobh Ramblers	32	39	46	-7	45
7	Wexford	32	37	47	-10	40
8	Athlone Town	32	36	36	0	44
9	Treaty United	32	31	47	-16	33
10	Finn Harps	32	29	64	-35	25