Statistics / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Bohemians vs Waterford

Bohemians vs Waterford Statistics & Analysis

Bohemians Bohemians
Oct 16, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Waterford Waterford
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14560261

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bohemians win · Bohemians 2–1 Waterford
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.5% · Draw 27.8% · Away 28.7%
  • xG (showing): Bohemians 1.37 — Waterford 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shamrock Rovers 33 19 8 6 65
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
3 Bohemians 33 17 8 8 59
4 Shelbourne 33 10 13 10 43
5 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
6 Dundalk 33 10 11 12 41
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 33 8 10 15 34
10 Sligo Rovers 33 5 8 20 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 33 58 40 +18 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 33 54 33 +21 65
3 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
4 Dundalk 33 50 55 -5 41
5 Shelbourne 33 47 46 +1 43
6 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
7 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 33 39 54 -15 34
10 Sligo Rovers 33 25 59 -34 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 14.3 8.4 +5.9 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 15.1 9.4 +5.7 59
3 Derry City 32 12.1 8.7 +3.4 41
4 Shamrock Rovers 33 12.9 9.9 +3.0 65
5 Bohemians 33 13.2 10.7 +2.5 59
6 Dundalk 33 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 11.4 14.9 -3.5 38
8 Shelbourne 33 9.4 12.9 -3.5 43
9 Drogheda United 33 7.3 13.6 -6.3 34
10 Sligo Rovers 33 8.5 16.7 -8.2 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions