Statistics / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Shelbourne vs Bohemians

Shelbourne vs Bohemians Statistics & Analysis

Shelbourne Shelbourne
Jun 22, 2026 - 18:45
0 2.51
3 0.75
xG Accuracy: 27%
Bohemians Bohemians
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Shelbourne Bohemians ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 20:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3073406

Closing Odds 2.75
AI Fair Odds 1.55
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bohemians win · Shelbourne 0–3 Bohemians
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 64.5%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Shelbourne (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Shelbourne (1X2) by about 29.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shelbourne (1X2) 64.5 35.0 +29.5
Draw (1X2) 21.9 29.8 -7.9
Bohemians (1X2) 13.7 35.2 -21.6
Over 2.5 goals 63.2 47.3 +15.9
Under 2.5 goals 36.8 52.7 -15.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 64.5% on Shelbourne (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.0%. The difference — about 29.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shelbourne (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0
Bohemians (1X2) 2.73 2.73 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-22 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 64.5% · Draw 21.9% · Away 13.7%
  • xG (showing): Shelbourne 2.51 — Bohemians 0.75 (total xG ≈ 3.26)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.2% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.4% · No 50.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions