Statistics / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.

Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. Statistics & Analysis

Bohemians Bohemians
Jun 26, 2026 - 19:00
2 2.25
0 0.99
xG Accuracy: 71%
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619746

Closing Odds 2.58
AI Fair Odds 1.76
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bohemians win · Bohemians 2–0 St Patrick's Athl.
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 56.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.63 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bohemians (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bohemians (1X2) 56.9 37.3 +19.6
Draw (1X2) 24.2 30.0 -5.7
St Patrick's Athl. (1X2) 18.9 32.7 -13.9
Over 2.5 goals 62.8 45.2 +17.6
Under 2.5 goals 37.2 54.8 -17.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 56.9% on Bohemians (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bohemians (1X2) 2.54 2.58 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.21 +0.5
St Patrick's Athl. (1X2) 2.95 2.94 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.1 2.13 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.76 +0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-26 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.9% · Draw 24.2% · Away 18.9%
  • xG (showing): Bohemians 2.25 — St Patrick's Athl. 0.99 (total xG ≈ 3.24)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.8% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +17.2 pts · Est. EV: +33.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions