Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Vasco DA Gama vs remo

Vasco DA Gama vs remo Statistics & Analysis

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Oct 10, 2026 - 21:00
0 1.45
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 50%
remo remo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vasco DA Gama Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13250840

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Vasco DA Gama 0–0 remo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), remo (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on remo (1X2) by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vasco DA Gama (1X2) 43.7 74.4 -30.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 17.1 +12.5
remo (1X2) 26.8 8.5 +18.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.8% on remo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.5%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Vasco DA Gama (1X2) 1.26 1.26 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.5 5.5 0.0
remo (1X2) 11.0 11.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Vasco DA Gama; market prices Vasco DA Gama instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Vasco DA Gama 1.45 xG vs remo 1.09 → Vasco DA Gama 43.7%
  • Market: Vasco DA Gama ~74.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.4% · Over 2.5 46.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.4% · No 47.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 29 18 7 4 61
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 48
5 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
6 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 43
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 42
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 29 10 7 12 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 36
13 Botafogo 29 9 8 12 35
14 Vasco DA Gama 28 9 7 12 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 30
19 remo 29 5 9 15 24
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 3 9 16 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 29 57 25 +32 61
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Santos 29 45 43 +2 42
4 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
5 Cruzeiro 29 44 40 +4 48
6 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
7 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
8 Botafogo 29 42 47 -5 35
9 Atletico-MG 28 37 32 +5 43
10 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
11 Vasco DA Gama 28 36 42 -6 34
12 RB Bragantino 29 34 33 +1 37
13 Mirassol 29 34 43 -9 33
14 Sao Paulo 29 33 34 -1 36
15 remo 29 33 48 -15 24
16 Internacional 29 32 37 -5 31
17 Vitoria 29 32 42 -10 36
18 Gremio 29 31 39 -8 30
19 Corinthians 29 30 34 -4 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 29 57 -28 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 15.4 8.8 +6.6 46
2 Flamengo 29 10.7 6.7 +4.0 61
3 Palmeiras 28 10.9 7.2 +3.7 57
4 Vasco DA Gama 28 10.1 6.4 +3.7 34
5 Atletico Paranaense 28 12.8 9.8 +3.0 49
6 Santos 29 11.1 8.1 +3.0 42
7 Atletico-MG 28 9.1 6.7 +2.4 43
8 Fluminense 28 9.7 8.6 +1.1 48
9 Sao Paulo 29 6.7 5.6 +1.1 36
10 Corinthians 29 8.0 7.4 +0.6 32
11 Botafogo 29 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
12 RB Bragantino 29 4.9 5.7 -0.8 37
13 Cruzeiro 29 9.3 10.2 -0.9 48
14 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
15 Chapecoense-sc 28 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
16 remo 29 5.9 8.6 -2.7 24
17 Mirassol 29 9.0 12.2 -3.2 33
18 Internacional 29 9.6 13.0 -3.4 31
19 Vitoria 29 7.4 13.5 -6.1 36
20 Gremio 29 6.7 14.3 -7.6 30
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions