Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Statistics & Analysis

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Oct 11, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.26
1 0.94
xG Accuracy: 80%
Vitoria Vitoria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13183598

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sao Paulo win · Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.0% · Draw 32.0% · Away 26.0%
  • xG (showing): Sao Paulo 1.26 — Vitoria 0.94 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.3% · Implied: 55.4% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +12.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 30 19 7 4 64
2 Palmeiras 30 18 9 3 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 15 8 7 53
4 Fluminense 30 14 9 7 51
5 Bahia 30 13 10 7 49
6 Cruzeiro 30 14 6 10 48
7 Atletico-MG 30 13 8 9 47
8 Santos 30 11 9 10 42
9 RB Bragantino 30 11 7 12 40
10 Sao Paulo 30 11 6 13 39
11 Coritiba 30 10 9 11 39
12 Vitoria 30 10 6 14 36
13 Botafogo 30 9 9 12 36
14 Vasco DA Gama 29 9 8 12 35
15 Mirassol 30 8 9 13 33
16 Corinthians 30 8 8 14 32
17 Internacional 30 7 11 12 32
18 Gremio 30 7 10 13 31
19 remo 30 5 10 15 25
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 3 9 17 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 30 58 25 +33 64
2 Palmeiras 30 52 22 +30 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 49 35 +14 53
4 Fluminense 30 48 37 +11 51
5 Cruzeiro 30 46 44 +2 48
6 Santos 30 46 45 +1 42
7 Bahia 30 44 36 +8 49
8 Botafogo 30 43 48 -5 36
9 Atletico-MG 30 41 35 +6 47
10 RB Bragantino 30 38 35 +3 40
11 Coritiba 30 38 48 -10 39
12 Vasco DA Gama 29 36 42 -6 35
13 Sao Paulo 30 35 35 0 39
14 Mirassol 30 34 44 -10 33
15 Internacional 30 33 38 -5 32
16 Vitoria 30 33 44 -11 36
17 remo 30 33 48 -15 25
18 Gremio 30 32 40 -8 31
19 Corinthians 30 31 38 -7 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 30 61 -31 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 30 15.4 8.7 +6.7 49
2 Flamengo 30 10.7 6.3 +4.4 64
3 Vasco DA Gama 29 10.1 6.4 +3.7 35
4 Palmeiras 30 10.8 7.2 +3.6 63
5 Santos 30 11.0 8.0 +3.0 42
6 Atletico Paranaense 30 14.2 11.6 +2.6 53
7 Atletico-MG 30 9.1 6.7 +2.4 47
8 Sao Paulo 30 6.7 5.6 +1.1 39
9 Fluminense 30 9.3 8.5 +0.8 51
10 Corinthians 30 8.0 7.3 +0.7 32
11 Botafogo 30 11.9 12.1 -0.2 36
12 RB Bragantino 30 7.8 8.5 -0.7 40
13 Cruzeiro 30 12.1 13.1 -1.0 48
14 Coritiba 30 6.1 8.0 -1.9 39
15 Chapecoense-sc 29 9.0 11.3 -2.3 18
16 remo 30 5.9 8.6 -2.7 25
17 Mirassol 30 8.9 12.1 -3.2 33
18 Internacional 30 9.6 12.9 -3.3 32
19 Vitoria 30 7.4 13.5 -6.1 36
20 Gremio 30 6.7 14.3 -7.6 31
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions