Palmeiras vs Corinthians Statistics & Analysis

Palmeiras

Oct 11, 2026 - 20:30

4 1.08

1 1.09

xG Accuracy: 44%

Corinthians

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Corinthians Palmeiras ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238704

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Palmeiras win · Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Corinthians (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Corinthians (1X2) by about 17.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Palmeiras (1X2)	33.3	58.4	-25.1
Draw (1X2)	32.9	25.4	+7.5
Corinthians (1X2)	33.8	16.2	+17.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Corinthians (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.2%. The difference — about 17.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Palmeiras (1X2)	1.61	1.61
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Corinthians (1X2)	5.8	5.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie A
Fixture: Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.3% · Draw 32.9% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Palmeiras 1.08 — Corinthians 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 63.1% · Implied: 56.4% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Palmeiras & Corinthians!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	31
19	remo	30	5	10	15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	18
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	58	25	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	52	22	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	49	35	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	48	37	+11	51
5	Cruzeiro	30	46	44	+2	48
6	Santos	30	46	45	+1	42
7	Bahia	30	44	36	+8	49
8	Botafogo	30	43	48	-5	36
9	Atletico-MG	30	41	35	+6	47
10	RB Bragantino	30	38	35	+3	40
11	Coritiba	30	38	48	-10	39
12	Vasco DA Gama	29	36	42	-6	35
13	Sao Paulo	30	35	35	0	39
14	Mirassol	30	34	44	-10	33
15	Internacional	30	33	38	-5	32
16	Vitoria	30	33	44	-11	36
17	remo	30	33	48	-15	25
18	Gremio	30	32	40	-8	31
19	Corinthians	30	31	38	-7	32
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	30	61	-31	18
21	Chapecoense B	20	19	41	-22	10

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bahia	30	15.4	8.7	+6.7	49
2	Flamengo	30	10.7	6.3	+4.4	64
3	Vasco DA Gama	29	10.1	6.4	+3.7	35
4	Palmeiras	30	10.8	7.2	+3.6	63
5	Santos	30	11.0	8.0	+3.0	42
6	Atletico Paranaense	30	14.2	11.6	+2.6	53
7	Atletico-MG	30	9.1	6.7	+2.4	47
8	Sao Paulo	30	6.7	5.6	+1.1	39
9	Fluminense	30	9.3	8.5	+0.8	51
10	Corinthians	30	8.0	7.3	+0.7	32
11	Botafogo	30	11.9	12.1	-0.2	36
12	RB Bragantino	30	7.8	8.5	-0.7	40
13	Cruzeiro	30	12.1	13.1	-1.0	48
14	Coritiba	30	6.1	8.0	-1.9	39
15	Chapecoense-sc	29	9.0	11.3	-2.3	18
16	remo	30	5.9	8.6	-2.7	25
17	Mirassol	30	8.9	12.1	-3.2	33
18	Internacional	30	9.6	12.9	-3.3	32
19	Vitoria	30	7.4	13.5	-6.1	36
20	Gremio	30	6.7	14.3	-7.6	31
21	Chapecoense B	20	—	—	—	10