Gremio vs Internacional Statistics & Analysis

Gremio

Oct 11, 2026 - 20:30

1 1.08

1 1.54

xG Accuracy: 84%

Internacional

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Internacional Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238606

Closing Odds 2.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Gremio 1–1 Internacional

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Internacional (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Internacional (1X2) by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Gremio (1X2)	25.1	34.6	-9.5
Draw (1X2)	28.6	30.1	-1.6
Internacional (1X2)	46.3	35.3	+11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.3% on Internacional (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.3%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Gremio (1X2)	2.7	2.7
Draw (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Internacional (1X2)	2.65	2.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie A
Fixture: Gremio vs Internacional
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.1% · Draw 28.6% · Away 46.3%
xG (showing): Gremio 1.08 — Internacional 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.62)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.7% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +12.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	31
19	remo	30	5	10	15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	18
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Flamengo	30	58	25	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	52	22	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	49	35	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	48	37	+11	51
5	Cruzeiro	30	46	44	+2	48
6	Santos	30	46	45	+1	42
7	Bahia	30	44	36	+8	49
8	Botafogo	30	43	48	-5	36
9	Atletico-MG	30	41	35	+6	47
10	RB Bragantino	30	38	35	+3	40
11	Coritiba	30	38	48	-10	39
12	Vasco DA Gama	29	36	42	-6	35
13	Sao Paulo	30	35	35	0	39
14	Mirassol	30	34	44	-10	33
15	Internacional	30	33	38	-5	32
16	Vitoria	30	33	44	-11	36
17	remo	30	33	48	-15	25
18	Gremio	30	32	40	-8	31
19	Corinthians	30	31	38	-7	32
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	30	61	-31	18
21	Chapecoense B	20	19	41	-22	10

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bahia	30	15.4	8.7	+6.7	49
2	Flamengo	30	10.7	6.3	+4.4	64
3	Vasco DA Gama	29	10.1	6.4	+3.7	35
4	Palmeiras	30	10.8	7.2	+3.6	63
5	Santos	30	11.0	8.0	+3.0	42
6	Atletico Paranaense	30	14.2	11.6	+2.6	53
7	Atletico-MG	30	9.1	6.7	+2.4	47
8	Sao Paulo	30	6.7	5.6	+1.1	39
9	Fluminense	30	9.3	8.5	+0.8	51
10	Corinthians	30	8.0	7.3	+0.7	32
11	Botafogo	30	11.9	12.1	-0.2	36
12	RB Bragantino	30	7.8	8.5	-0.7	40
13	Cruzeiro	30	12.1	13.1	-1.0	48
14	Coritiba	30	6.1	8.0	-1.9	39
15	Chapecoense-sc	29	9.0	11.3	-2.3	18
16	remo	30	5.9	8.6	-2.7	25
17	Mirassol	30	8.9	12.1	-3.2	33
18	Internacional	30	9.6	12.9	-3.3	32
19	Vitoria	30	7.4	13.5	-6.1	36
20	Gremio	30	6.7	14.3	-7.6	31
21	Chapecoense B	20	—	—	—	10