Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Flamengo vs Fluminense

Flamengo vs Fluminense Statistics & Analysis

Flamengo Flamengo
Oct 11, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.33
0 0.94
xG Accuracy: 70%
Fluminense Fluminense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Flamengo Flamengo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238616

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Flamengo win · Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Fluminense (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 10.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Flamengo (1X2) 44.0 63.6 -19.6
Draw (1X2) 31.2 21.3 +10.0
Fluminense (1X2) 24.7 15.1 +9.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.2% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.3%. The difference — about 10.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Flamengo (1X2) 1.47 1.47 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.4 4.4 0.0
Fluminense (1X2) 6.2 6.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Flamengo vs Fluminense
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.0% · Draw 31.2% · Away 24.7%
  • xG (showing): Flamengo 1.33 — Fluminense 0.94 (total xG ≈ 2.27)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 60.4% · Over 2.5 39.6%); BTTS No (Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.5% · No 53.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 30 19 7 4 64
2 Palmeiras 30 18 9 3 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 15 8 7 53
4 Fluminense 30 14 9 7 51
5 Bahia 30 13 10 7 49
6 Cruzeiro 30 14 6 10 48
7 Atletico-MG 30 13 8 9 47
8 Santos 30 11 9 10 42
9 RB Bragantino 30 11 7 12 40
10 Sao Paulo 30 11 6 13 39
11 Coritiba 30 10 9 11 39
12 Vitoria 30 10 6 14 36
13 Botafogo 30 9 9 12 36
14 Vasco DA Gama 29 9 8 12 35
15 Mirassol 30 8 9 13 33
16 Corinthians 30 8 8 14 32
17 Internacional 30 7 11 12 32
18 Gremio 30 7 10 13 31
19 remo 30 5 10 15 25
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 3 9 17 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 30 58 25 +33 64
2 Palmeiras 30 52 22 +30 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 49 35 +14 53
4 Fluminense 30 48 37 +11 51
5 Cruzeiro 30 46 44 +2 48
6 Santos 30 46 45 +1 42
7 Bahia 30 44 36 +8 49
8 Botafogo 30 43 48 -5 36
9 Atletico-MG 30 41 35 +6 47
10 RB Bragantino 30 38 35 +3 40
11 Coritiba 30 38 48 -10 39
12 Vasco DA Gama 29 36 42 -6 35
13 Sao Paulo 30 35 35 0 39
14 Mirassol 30 34 44 -10 33
15 Internacional 30 33 38 -5 32
16 Vitoria 30 33 44 -11 36
17 remo 30 33 48 -15 25
18 Gremio 30 32 40 -8 31
19 Corinthians 30 31 38 -7 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 30 61 -31 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 30 15.4 8.7 +6.7 49
2 Flamengo 30 10.7 6.3 +4.4 64
3 Vasco DA Gama 29 10.1 6.4 +3.7 35
4 Palmeiras 30 10.8 7.2 +3.6 63
5 Santos 30 11.0 8.0 +3.0 42
6 Atletico Paranaense 30 14.2 11.6 +2.6 53
7 Atletico-MG 30 9.1 6.7 +2.4 47
8 Sao Paulo 30 6.7 5.6 +1.1 39
9 Fluminense 30 9.3 8.5 +0.8 51
10 Corinthians 30 8.0 7.3 +0.7 32
11 Botafogo 30 11.9 12.1 -0.2 36
12 RB Bragantino 30 7.8 8.5 -0.7 40
13 Cruzeiro 30 12.1 13.1 -1.0 48
14 Coritiba 30 6.1 8.0 -1.9 39
15 Chapecoense-sc 29 9.0 11.3 -2.3 18
16 remo 30 5.9 8.6 -2.7 25
17 Mirassol 30 8.9 12.1 -3.2 33
18 Internacional 30 9.6 12.9 -3.3 32
19 Vitoria 30 7.4 13.5 -6.1 36
20 Gremio 30 6.7 14.3 -7.6 31
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions