Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Bahia vs Mirassol

Bahia vs Mirassol Statistics & Analysis

Bahia Bahia
Oct 11, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.90
0 1.00
xG Accuracy: 59%
Mirassol Mirassol
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bahia Bahia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13239950

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bahia win · Bahia 1–0 Mirassol
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bahia (1X2) 57.1 58.2 -1.1
Draw (1X2) 24.8 24.0 +0.8
Mirassol (1X2) 18.1 17.8 +0.3

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bahia (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Mirassol (1X2) 5.25 5.25 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Bahia vs Mirassol
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.1% · Draw 24.8% · Away 18.1%
  • xG (showing): Bahia 1.9 — Mirassol 1.0 (total xG ≈ 2.9)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (10.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 30 19 7 4 64
2 Palmeiras 30 18 9 3 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 15 8 7 53
4 Fluminense 30 14 9 7 51
5 Bahia 30 13 10 7 49
6 Cruzeiro 30 14 6 10 48
7 Atletico-MG 30 13 8 9 47
8 Santos 30 11 9 10 42
9 RB Bragantino 30 11 7 12 40
10 Sao Paulo 30 11 6 13 39
11 Coritiba 30 10 9 11 39
12 Vitoria 30 10 6 14 36
13 Botafogo 30 9 9 12 36
14 Vasco DA Gama 29 9 8 12 35
15 Mirassol 30 8 9 13 33
16 Corinthians 30 8 8 14 32
17 Internacional 30 7 11 12 32
18 Gremio 30 7 10 13 31
19 remo 30 5 10 15 25
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 3 9 17 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 30 58 25 +33 64
2 Palmeiras 30 52 22 +30 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 30 49 35 +14 53
4 Fluminense 30 48 37 +11 51
5 Cruzeiro 30 46 44 +2 48
6 Santos 30 46 45 +1 42
7 Bahia 30 44 36 +8 49
8 Botafogo 30 43 48 -5 36
9 Atletico-MG 30 41 35 +6 47
10 RB Bragantino 30 38 35 +3 40
11 Coritiba 30 38 48 -10 39
12 Vasco DA Gama 29 36 42 -6 35
13 Sao Paulo 30 35 35 0 39
14 Mirassol 30 34 44 -10 33
15 Internacional 30 33 38 -5 32
16 Vitoria 30 33 44 -11 36
17 remo 30 33 48 -15 25
18 Gremio 30 32 40 -8 31
19 Corinthians 30 31 38 -7 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 29 30 61 -31 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 30 15.4 8.7 +6.7 49
2 Flamengo 30 10.7 6.3 +4.4 64
3 Vasco DA Gama 29 10.1 6.4 +3.7 35
4 Palmeiras 30 10.8 7.2 +3.6 63
5 Santos 30 11.0 8.0 +3.0 42
6 Atletico Paranaense 30 14.2 11.6 +2.6 53
7 Atletico-MG 30 9.1 6.7 +2.4 47
8 Sao Paulo 30 6.7 5.6 +1.1 39
9 Fluminense 30 9.3 8.5 +0.8 51
10 Corinthians 30 8.0 7.3 +0.7 32
11 Botafogo 30 11.9 12.1 -0.2 36
12 RB Bragantino 30 7.8 8.5 -0.7 40
13 Cruzeiro 30 12.1 13.1 -1.0 48
14 Coritiba 30 6.1 8.0 -1.9 39
15 Chapecoense-sc 29 9.0 11.3 -2.3 18
16 remo 30 5.9 8.6 -2.7 25
17 Mirassol 30 8.9 12.1 -3.2 33
18 Internacional 30 9.6 12.9 -3.3 32
19 Vitoria 30 7.4 13.5 -6.1 36
20 Gremio 30 6.7 14.3 -7.6 31
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions