Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Santos vs Flamengo

Santos vs Flamengo Statistics & Analysis

Santos Santos
Oct 08, 2026 - 22:30
2 1.19
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
Flamengo Flamengo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Flamengo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12431722

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Santos 2–2 Flamengo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.74 percentage points on Flamengo (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Santos (1X2) by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Santos (1X2) 34.2 21.9 +12.3
Draw (1X2) 31.1 24.3 +6.8
Flamengo (1X2) 34.7 53.8 -19.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Santos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.9%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us → betfair

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Santos (1X2) 4.33 4.1 +0.4
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.7 +0.4
Flamengo (1X2) 1.71 1.67 -0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Santos vs Flamengo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-08 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 31.1% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Santos 1.19 — Flamengo 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.39)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.2% · Over 2.5 42.8%); BTTS No (Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 29 18 7 4 61
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 48
5 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
6 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 43
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 42
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 29 10 7 12 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 36
13 Botafogo 29 9 8 12 35
14 Vasco DA Gama 28 9 7 12 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 30
19 remo 29 5 9 15 24
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 3 9 16 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 29 57 25 +32 61
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Santos 29 45 43 +2 42
4 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
5 Cruzeiro 29 44 40 +4 48
6 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
7 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
8 Botafogo 29 42 47 -5 35
9 Atletico-MG 28 37 32 +5 43
10 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
11 Vasco DA Gama 28 36 42 -6 34
12 RB Bragantino 29 34 33 +1 37
13 Mirassol 29 34 43 -9 33
14 Sao Paulo 29 33 34 -1 36
15 remo 29 33 48 -15 24
16 Internacional 29 32 37 -5 31
17 Vitoria 29 32 42 -10 36
18 Gremio 29 31 39 -8 30
19 Corinthians 29 30 34 -4 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 29 57 -28 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 29 9.9 6.6 +3.3 42
3 Flamengo 29 9.0 5.7 +3.3 61
4 Vasco DA Gama 28 9.2 6.1 +3.1 34
5 Atletico-MG 28 5.9 2.9 +3.0 43
6 Corinthians 29 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 29 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 29 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 29 4.9 5.7 -0.8 37
13 Cruzeiro 29 9.3 10.2 -0.9 48
14 Mirassol 29 7.1 9.0 -1.9 33
15 remo 29 5.6 7.7 -2.1 24
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 28 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 29 8.8 11.5 -2.7 31
19 Vitoria 29 6.6 11.7 -5.1 36
20 Gremio 29 5.3 13.5 -8.2 30
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions