Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / remo vs Gremio

remo vs Gremio Statistics & Analysis

remo remo
Oct 07, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.42
1 0.95
xG Accuracy: 88%
Gremio Gremio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 remo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12190976

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · remo 1–1 Gremio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 1.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
remo (1X2) 46.2 46.9 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 30.2 28.4 +1.8
Gremio (1X2) 23.6 24.7 -1.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.2% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 1.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
remo (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Gremio (1X2) 3.8 3.8 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: remo vs Gremio
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.2% · Draw 30.2% · Away 23.6%
  • xG (showing): remo 1.42 — Gremio 0.95 (total xG ≈ 2.37)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 51.9% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.1% · No 51.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 29 18 7 4 61
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 48
5 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
6 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 43
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 42
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 29 10 7 12 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 36
13 Botafogo 29 9 8 12 35
14 Vasco DA Gama 28 9 7 12 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 30
19 remo 29 5 9 15 24
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 3 9 16 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 29 57 25 +32 61
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Santos 29 45 43 +2 42
4 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
5 Cruzeiro 29 44 40 +4 48
6 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
7 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
8 Botafogo 29 42 47 -5 35
9 Atletico-MG 28 37 32 +5 43
10 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
11 Vasco DA Gama 28 36 42 -6 34
12 RB Bragantino 29 34 33 +1 37
13 Mirassol 29 34 43 -9 33
14 Sao Paulo 29 33 34 -1 36
15 remo 29 33 48 -15 24
16 Internacional 29 32 37 -5 31
17 Vitoria 29 32 42 -10 36
18 Gremio 29 31 39 -8 30
19 Corinthians 29 30 34 -4 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 29 57 -28 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 29 9.9 6.6 +3.3 42
3 Flamengo 29 9.0 5.7 +3.3 61
4 Vasco DA Gama 28 9.2 6.1 +3.1 34
5 Atletico-MG 28 5.9 2.9 +3.0 43
6 Corinthians 29 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 29 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 29 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 29 4.9 5.7 -0.8 37
13 Cruzeiro 29 9.3 10.2 -0.9 48
14 Mirassol 29 7.1 9.0 -1.9 33
15 remo 29 5.6 7.7 -2.1 24
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 28 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 29 8.8 11.5 -2.7 31
19 Vitoria 29 6.6 11.7 -5.1 36
20 Gremio 29 5.3 13.5 -8.2 30
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions