Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Statistics & Analysis

Palmeiras Palmeiras
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.54
1 1.07
xG Accuracy: 50%
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Palmeiras Palmeiras ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4370997

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Palmeiras win · Palmeiras 4–1 Vasco DA Gama
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vasco DA Gama (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vasco DA Gama (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Palmeiras (1X2) 46.5 59.2 -12.6
Draw (1X2) 28.7 24.0 +4.7
Vasco DA Gama (1X2) 24.8 16.9 +8.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.4 48.5 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.6 51.5 +0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.8% on Vasco DA Gama (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.9%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Palmeiras (1X2) 1.63 1.63 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.02 4.02 0.0
Vasco DA Gama (1X2) 5.72 5.72 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.0 2.0 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.5% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.8%
  • xG (showing): Palmeiras 1.54 — Vasco DA Gama 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.61)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.2% · Implied: 48.5% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 28 18 6 4 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 27 10 6 11 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 36
12 Botafogo 28 9 8 11 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 32
16 Vasco DA Gama 27 8 7 12 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 28
19 remo 28 5 8 15 23
20 Chapecoense-sc 27 3 9 15 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 28 55 23 +32 60
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
4 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
5 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 42 40 +2 45
7 Santos 27 41 40 +1 38
8 Botafogo 28 41 45 -4 35
9 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
10 Atletico-MG 27 36 32 +4 40
11 Vasco DA Gama 27 34 41 -7 31
12 RB Bragantino 27 33 31 +2 36
13 Mirassol 28 33 42 -9 32
14 Sao Paulo 27 32 30 +2 36
15 remo 28 32 47 -15 23
16 Internacional 28 30 36 -6 28
17 Gremio 28 30 38 -8 29
18 Corinthians 28 29 32 -3 32
19 Chapecoense-sc 27 29 53 -24 18
20 Vitoria 28 28 42 -14 33
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 27 9.9 6.6 +3.3 38
3 Flamengo 28 9.0 5.7 +3.3 60
4 Vasco DA Gama 27 9.2 6.1 +3.1 31
5 Atletico-MG 27 5.9 2.9 +3.0 40
6 Corinthians 28 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 28 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 27 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 27 4.9 5.7 -0.8 36
13 Cruzeiro 28 9.3 10.2 -0.9 45
14 Mirassol 28 7.1 9.0 -1.9 32
15 remo 28 5.6 7.7 -2.1 23
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 27 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 28 8.8 11.5 -2.7 28
19 Vitoria 28 6.6 11.7 -5.1 33
20 Gremio 28 5.3 13.5 -8.2 29
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions