Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Botafogo vs Vitoria

Botafogo vs Vitoria Statistics & Analysis

Botafogo Botafogo
Jul 23, 2026 - 22:30
0 2.17
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 39%
Vitoria Vitoria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Botafogo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451144

Closing Odds 3.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Botafogo 0–0 Vitoria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Botafogo (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Botafogo (1X2) 57.6 54.3 +3.3
Draw (1X2) 22.6 26.5 -3.9
Vitoria (1X2) 19.8 19.2 +0.6
Over 2.5 goals 66.0 53.0 +13.0
Under 2.5 goals 34.0 47.0 -13.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 53.0%. The difference — about 13.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Botafogo (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.65 3.65 0.0
Vitoria (1X2) 5.03 5.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Campeonato Brasileiro Série A
  • Fixture: Botafogo vs Vitória
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 57.6% · Draw 22.6% · Away 19.8%
  • xG (showing): Botafogo 2.17 — Vitória 1.23 (total xG ≈ 3.4)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 52.4% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +24.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.8% · No 36.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Palmeiras 27 16 8 3 56
2 Flamengo 26 16 6 4 54
3 Atletico Paranaense 27 13 7 7 46
4 Fluminense 27 12 9 6 45
5 Bahia 26 11 10 5 43
6 Cruzeiro 27 12 6 9 42
7 Atletico-MG 26 11 6 9 39
8 Coritiba 27 10 8 9 38
9 RB Bragantino 26 10 6 10 36
10 Santos 26 9 8 9 35
11 Sao Paulo 26 9 6 11 33
12 Vitoria 27 9 6 12 33
13 Corinthians 26 8 8 10 32
14 Botafogo 26 8 8 10 32
15 Mirassol 27 7 8 12 29
16 Gremio 26 7 7 12 28
17 Vasco DA Gama 26 7 7 12 28
18 Internacional 27 6 10 11 28
19 remo 26 5 8 13 23
20 Chapecoense-sc 26 3 8 15 17
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 26 51 21 +30 54
2 Palmeiras 27 47 21 +26 56
3 Atletico Paranaense 27 41 31 +10 46
4 Fluminense 27 41 35 +6 45
5 Bahia 26 40 32 +8 43
6 Cruzeiro 27 39 39 0 42
7 Santos 26 39 39 0 35
8 Botafogo 26 38 41 -3 32
9 Coritiba 27 37 38 -1 38
10 Atletico-MG 26 35 31 +4 39
11 RB Bragantino 26 32 29 +3 36
12 Sao Paulo 26 31 30 +1 33
13 Mirassol 27 31 42 -11 29
14 Internacional 27 30 35 -5 28
15 remo 26 30 43 -13 23
16 Vasco DA Gama 26 29 41 -12 28
17 Gremio 26 28 35 -7 28
18 Chapecoense-sc 26 28 52 -24 17
19 Corinthians 26 27 27 0 32
20 Vitoria 27 27 39 -12 33
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 26 12.2 6.9 +5.3 43
2 Santos 26 9.9 6.6 +3.3 35
3 Flamengo 26 9.0 5.7 +3.3 54
4 Vasco DA Gama 26 9.2 6.1 +3.1 28
5 Atletico-MG 26 5.9 2.9 +3.0 39
6 Corinthians 26 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 27 10.2 8.1 +2.1 46
8 Fluminense 27 8.7 6.8 +1.9 45
9 Palmeiras 27 8.2 6.5 +1.7 56
10 Sao Paulo 26 4.9 4.8 +0.1 33
11 Botafogo 26 10.1 10.3 -0.2 32
12 RB Bragantino 26 4.9 5.7 -0.8 36
13 Cruzeiro 27 9.3 10.2 -0.9 42
14 Mirassol 27 7.1 9.0 -1.9 29
15 remo 26 5.6 7.7 -2.1 23
16 Coritiba 27 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 26 7.3 9.9 -2.6 17
18 Internacional 27 8.8 11.5 -2.7 28
19 Vitoria 27 6.6 11.7 -5.1 33
20 Gremio 26 4.7 12.6 -7.9 28
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions