Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil Statistics & Analysis

Yverdon Sport

May 11, 2026 - 18:15

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Rapperswil

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 10:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1587674

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Yverdon Sport win · Yverdon Sport 3–1 Rapperswil

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rapperswil (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rapperswil (1X2) by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Yverdon Sport (1X2)	41.8	57.8	-16.0
Draw (1X2)	25.7	21.6	+4.1
Rapperswil (1X2)	32.6	20.7	+11.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	62.4	-11.8
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	37.6	+11.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Rapperswil (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Yverdon Sport (1X2)	1.64	1.64
Draw (1X2)	4.39	4.39
Rapperswil (1X2)	4.58	4.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.54	2.54

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Challenge League
Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil
Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Yverdon Sport 1.45 — Rapperswil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 72.7% · No 27.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Challenge League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Vaduz	36	25	6	5	81
2	FC Aarau	36	25	5	6	80
3	Yverdon Sport	36	20	7	9	67
4	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	36	14	8	14	50
5	Neuchatel Xamax FC	36	14	7	15	49
6	Rapperswil	36	14	2	20	44
7	Étoile Carouge	36	10	10	16	40
8	FC WIL 1900	36	10	10	16	40
9	Stade Nyonnais	36	5	13	18	28
10	Bellinzona	36	5	8	23	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Aarau	36	77	47	+30	80
2	FC Vaduz	36	75	41	+34	81
3	Yverdon Sport	36	75	48	+27	67
4	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	36	59	51	+8	50
5	Neuchatel Xamax FC	36	55	56	-1	49
6	Rapperswil	36	52	62	-10	44
7	Étoile Carouge	36	46	54	-8	40
8	Bellinzona	36	40	77	-37	23
9	FC WIL 1900	36	39	55	-16	40
10	Stade Nyonnais	36	33	60	-27	28