Statistics / Football / Switzerland. Challenge League / Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900

Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900 Statistics & Analysis

Bellinzona Bellinzona
May 11, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
FC WIL 1900 FC WIL 1900
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bellinzona FC WIL 1900 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 21:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1765480

Closing Odds 3.36
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC WIL 1900 win · Bellinzona 2–4 FC WIL 1900
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bellinzona (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bellinzona (1X2) by about 13.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bellinzona (1X2) 41.8 28.4 +13.4
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.9 -1.2
FC WIL 1900 (1X2) 32.6 44.7 -12.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 53.9 -3.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 46.1 +3.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Bellinzona (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 13.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bellinzona (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
FC WIL 1900 (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge League
  • Fixture: Bellinzona vs FC WIL 1900
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Bellinzona 1.45 — FC WIL 1900 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 30.9% · No 69.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Challenge League Challenge League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Vaduz 36 25 6 5 81
2 FC Aarau 36 25 5 6 80
3 Yverdon Sport 36 20 7 9 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 14 8 14 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 14 7 15 49
6 Rapperswil 36 14 2 20 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 10 10 16 40
8 FC WIL 1900 36 10 10 16 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Aarau 36 77 47 +30 80
2 FC Vaduz 36 75 41 +34 81
3 Yverdon Sport 36 75 48 +27 67
4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 36 59 51 +8 50
5 Neuchatel Xamax FC 36 55 56 -1 49
6 Rapperswil 36 52 62 -10 44
7 Étoile Carouge 36 46 54 -8 40
8 Bellinzona 36 40 77 -37 23
9 FC WIL 1900 36 39 55 -16 40
10 Stade Nyonnais 36 33 60 -27 28