Statistics / Football / Thailand. Thai League 1 / Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior

Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior Statistics & Analysis

Buriram United Buriram United
May 10, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.43
1 0.69
xG Accuracy: 82%
Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Buriram United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2048360

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Buriram United 1–1 Lamphun Warrior
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Lamphun Warrior (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 33.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Buriram United (1X2) 53.4 77.0 -23.6
Draw (1X2) 30.2 14.2 +16.0
Lamphun Warrior (1X2) 16.4 8.8 +7.6
Over 2.5 goals 35.6 68.8 -33.1
Under 2.5 goals 64.4 31.2 +33.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 64.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 31.2%. The difference — about 33.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Buriram United (1X2) 1.2 1.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.51 6.51 0.0
Lamphun Warrior (1X2) 10.43 10.43 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.35 1.35 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.97 2.97 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Thai League 1
  • Fixture: Buriram United vs Lamphun Warrior
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.4% · Draw 30.2% · Away 16.4%
  • xG (showing): Buriram United 1.43 — Lamphun Warrior 0.69 (total xG ≈ 2.12)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 64.4% · Over 2.5 35.6%); BTTS No (Yes 39.5% · No 60.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.5% · No 60.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Thai League 1 Thai League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Buriram United 30 22 4 4 70
2 Port FC 30 18 6 6 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 18 5 7 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 14 10 6 52
5 Bangkok United 30 13 11 6 50
6 Prachuap 30 11 12 7 45
7 Chiangrai United 30 9 13 8 40
8 Chonburi FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Rayong FC 30 9 10 11 37
10 Ayutthaya FC 30 8 8 14 32
11 Uthai Thani 30 7 10 13 31
12 Lamphun Warrior 30 4 17 9 29
13 Sukhothai FC 30 6 10 14 28
14 Muangthong United 30 6 8 16 26
15 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6 6 18 24
16 Kanchanaburi 30 4 11 15 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 76 31 +45 70
2 Port FC 30 59 23 +36 60
3 Ratchaburi 30 55 30 +25 59
4 Bangkok Glass 30 45 29 +16 52
5 Rayong FC 30 44 49 -5 37
6 Bangkok United 30 43 32 +11 50
7 Prachuap 30 39 37 +2 45
8 Uthai Thani 30 39 44 -5 31
9 Chonburi FC 30 38 41 -3 39
10 Chiangrai United 30 36 37 -1 40
11 Lamphun Warrior 30 35 47 -12 29
12 Ayutthaya FC 30 34 50 -16 32
13 Kanchanaburi 30 29 54 -25 23
14 Muangthong United 30 27 52 -25 26
15 Sukhothai FC 30 23 42 -19 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 20 44 -24 24
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Buriram United 30 13.4 6.1 +7.3 70
2 Bangkok United 30 13.3 7.2 +6.1 50
3 Port FC 30 12.0 8.3 +3.7 60
4 Prachuap 30 10.3 6.6 +3.7 45
5 Ayutthaya FC 30 10.3 7.9 +2.4 32
6 Rayong FC 30 9.8 7.8 +2.0 37
7 Muangthong United 30 10.3 9.8 +0.5 26
8 Chonburi FC 30 8.9 10.1 -1.2 39
9 Ratchaburi 30 10.8 12.2 -1.4 59
10 Lamphun Warrior 30 9.5 11.1 -1.6 29
11 Uthai Thani 30 9.0 10.8 -1.8 31
12 Bangkok Glass 30 8.1 9.9 -1.8 52
13 Kanchanaburi 30 9.0 12.2 -3.2 23
14 Chiangrai United 30 8.4 11.8 -3.4 40
15 Sukhothai FC 30 7.8 13.3 -5.5 28
16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30 6.5 12.2 -5.7 24