Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19

Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 Statistics & Analysis

Pardubice U19 Pardubice U19
Jun 13, 2026 - 08:15
3 1.67
2 1.91
xG Accuracy: 68%
Hradec Králové U19 Hradec Králové U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hradec Králové U19 Pardubice U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1494221

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Pardubice U19 win · Pardubice U19 3–2 Hradec Králové U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hradec Králové U19 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 3.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pardubice U19 (1X2) 33.8 38.7 -4.9
Draw (1X2) 24.0 22.0 +2.0
Hradec Králové U19 (1X2) 42.2 39.4 +2.9
Over 2.5 goals 69.4 66.3 +3.1
Under 2.5 goals 30.6 33.7 -3.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 69.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 66.3%. The difference — about 3.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pardubice U19 (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Hradec Králové U19 (1X2) 2.26 2.26 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.71 2.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Pardubice U19 vs Hradec Králové U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 24.0% · Away 42.2%
  • xG (showing): Pardubice U19 1.67 — Hradec Králové U19 1.91 (total xG ≈ 3.58)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Liga U19 1. Liga U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 18 6 5 60
2 Baník Ostrava U19 30 16 6 8 54
3 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 14 6 9 48
4 Karviná U19 30 15 3 12 48
5 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 14 3 13 45
6 Sparta Praha U19 29 14 3 12 45
7 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 13 6 11 45
8 Slavia Praha U19 29 14 2 13 44
9 Dukla Praha U19 29 12 6 11 42
10 České Budějovice U19 29 12 5 12 41
11 Pardubice U19 29 11 6 12 39
12 Slovácko U19 30 11 6 13 39
13 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 10 6 13 36
14 Zlín U19 29 8 8 13 32
15 Slovan Liberec U19 29 8 4 17 28
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 5 4 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hradec Králové U19 29 70 36 +34 60
2 Slavia Praha U19 29 62 62 0 44
3 Baník Ostrava U19 30 60 50 +10 54
4 Viktoria Plzeň U19 29 59 46 +13 48
5 Sparta Praha U19 29 59 53 +6 45
6 České Budějovice U19 29 59 63 -4 41
7 Mladá Boleslav U19 30 55 43 +12 45
8 Karviná U19 30 54 47 +7 48
9 Slovan Liberec U19 29 53 73 -20 28
10 Pardubice U19 29 50 48 +2 39
11 Dukla Praha U19 29 49 51 -2 42
12 Zlín U19 29 47 50 -3 32
13 Zbrojovka Brno U19 30 46 43 +3 45
14 Slovácko U19 30 43 53 -10 39
15 Sigma Olomouc U19 29 41 45 -4 36
16 Vysočina Jihlava U19 30 31 75 -44 19
1. Liga U19 Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 Predictions