Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Pardubice U19 Statistics & Analysis

Mladá Boleslav U19

Jun 06, 2026 - 08:15

3 1.97

0 1.63

xG Accuracy: 48%

Pardubice U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Mladá Boleslav U19 Mladá Boleslav U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3557125

Closing Odds 1.79

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Mladá Boleslav U19 win · Mladá Boleslav U19 3–0 Pardubice U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pardubice U19 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	45.7	50.1	-4.4
Draw (1X2)	23.8	22.0	+1.8
Pardubice U19 (1X2)	30.5	27.9	+2.6
Over 2.5 goals	69.7	66.5	+3.2
Under 2.5 goals	30.3	33.5	-3.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 69.7% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 66.5%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	1.79	1.79
Draw (1X2)	4.08	4.08
Pardubice U19 (1X2)	3.22	3.22
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	2.72	2.72

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Pardubice U19
Kickoff: 2026-06-06 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.7% · Draw 23.8% · Away 30.5%
xG (showing): Mladá Boleslav U19 1.97 — Pardubice U19 1.63 (total xG ≈ 3.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 70.3% · No 29.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 70.3% · No 29.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Liga U19 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Hradec Králové U19	29	18	6	5	60
2	Baník Ostrava U19	30	16	6	8	54
3	Viktoria Plzeň U19	29	14	6	9	48
4	Karviná U19	30	15	3	12	48
5	Mladá Boleslav U19	30	14	3	13	45
6	Sparta Praha U19	29	14	3	12	45
7	Zbrojovka Brno U19	30	13	6	11	45
8	Slavia Praha U19	29	14	2	13	44
9	Dukla Praha U19	29	12	6	11	42
10	České Budějovice U19	29	12	5	12	41
11	Pardubice U19	29	11	6	12	39
12	Slovácko U19	30	11	6	13	39
13	Sigma Olomouc U19	29	10	6	13	36
14	Zlín U19	29	8	8	13	32
15	Slovan Liberec U19	29	8	4	17	28
16	Vysočina Jihlava U19	30	5	4	21	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hradec Králové U19	29	70	36	+34	60
2	Slavia Praha U19	29	62	62	0	44
3	Baník Ostrava U19	30	60	50	+10	54
4	Viktoria Plzeň U19	29	59	46	+13	48
5	Sparta Praha U19	29	59	53	+6	45
6	České Budějovice U19	29	59	63	-4	41
7	Mladá Boleslav U19	30	55	43	+12	45
8	Karviná U19	30	54	47	+7	48
9	Slovan Liberec U19	29	53	73	-20	28
10	Pardubice U19	29	50	48	+2	39
11	Dukla Praha U19	29	49	51	-2	42
12	Zlín U19	29	47	50	-3	32
13	Zbrojovka Brno U19	30	46	43	+3	45
14	Slovácko U19	30	43	53	-10	39
15	Sigma Olomouc U19	29	41	45	-4	36
16	Vysočina Jihlava U19	30	31	75	-44	19