Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19 Statistics & Analysis

Mladá Boleslav U19

May 23, 2026 - 11:15

0 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Zbrojovka Brno U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Mladá Boleslav U19 Zbrojovka Brno U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3557139

Closing Odds 1.55

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Zbrojovka Brno U19 win · Mladá Boleslav U19 0–2 Zbrojovka Brno U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Zbrojovka Brno U19 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	41.8	57.3	-15.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.1	+2.5
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (1X2)	32.6	19.6	+13.0
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	64.2	-13.6
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	35.8	+13.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Mladá Boleslav U19 (1X2)	1.55	1.55
Draw (1X2)	3.84	3.84
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (1X2)	4.53	4.53
Over 2.5 goals	1.42	1.42
Under 2.5 goals	2.55	2.55

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Mladá Boleslav U19 1.45 — Zbrojovka Brno U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.5% · No 38.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 61.5% · No 38.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

1. Liga U19 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Hradec Králové U19	29	18	6	5	60
2	Baník Ostrava U19	30	16	6	8	54
3	Viktoria Plzeň U19	29	14	6	9	48
4	Karviná U19	30	15	3	12	48
5	Mladá Boleslav U19	30	14	3	13	45
6	Sparta Praha U19	29	14	3	12	45
7	Zbrojovka Brno U19	30	13	6	11	45
8	Slavia Praha U19	29	14	2	13	44
9	Dukla Praha U19	29	12	6	11	42
10	České Budějovice U19	29	12	5	12	41
11	Pardubice U19	29	11	6	12	39
12	Slovácko U19	30	11	6	13	39
13	Sigma Olomouc U19	29	10	6	13	36
14	Zlín U19	29	8	8	13	32
15	Slovan Liberec U19	29	8	4	17	28
16	Vysočina Jihlava U19	30	5	4	21	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hradec Králové U19	29	70	36	+34	60
2	Slavia Praha U19	29	62	62	0	44
3	Baník Ostrava U19	30	60	50	+10	54
4	Viktoria Plzeň U19	29	59	46	+13	48
5	Sparta Praha U19	29	59	53	+6	45
6	České Budějovice U19	29	59	63	-4	41
7	Mladá Boleslav U19	30	55	43	+12	45
8	Karviná U19	30	54	47	+7	48
9	Slovan Liberec U19	29	53	73	-20	28
10	Pardubice U19	29	50	48	+2	39
11	Dukla Praha U19	29	49	51	-2	42
12	Zlín U19	29	47	50	-3	32
13	Zbrojovka Brno U19	30	46	43	+3	45
14	Slovácko U19	30	43	53	-10	39
15	Sigma Olomouc U19	29	41	45	-4	36
16	Vysočina Jihlava U19	30	31	75	-44	19