DC United vs New York Red Bulls Statistics & Analysis

DC United

Oct 14, 2026 - 23:30

2 1.80

1 1.83

xG Accuracy: 75%

New York Red Bulls

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 New York Red Bulls DC United ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 08, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13904514

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result DC United win · DC United 2–1 New York Red Bulls

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Major League Soccer
Fixture: DC United vs New York Red Bulls
Kickoff: 2026-10-14 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.3% · Draw 24.1% · Away 38.6%
xG (showing): DC United 1.8 — New York Red Bulls 1.83 (total xG ≈ 3.63)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 70.2% · Implied: 66.4% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 71.2% · No 28.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Major League Soccer — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	61	30	+31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	54	38	+16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	52	45	+7	47
4	Portland Timbers	28	51	54	-3	33
5	San Jose Earthquakes	28	50	40	+10	46
6	San Diego	28	48	51	-3	32
7	Los Angeles FC	29	44	31	+13	42
8	Minnesota United FC	28	42	51	-9	30
9	Real Salt Lake	28	41	46	-5	32
10	Colorado Rapids	28	39	39	0	37
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	39	50	-11	36
12	Seattle Sounders	28	38	35	+3	41
13	Houston Dynamo	28	36	34	+2	45
14	Austin	28	36	51	-15	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	35	68	-33	22

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	St. Louis City	28	19.6	10.8	+8.8	50
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	17.4	8.8	+8.6	51
3	Colorado Rapids	28	15.9	9.8	+6.1	37
4	Minnesota United FC	28	20.7	16.9	+3.8	30
5	Portland Timbers	28	21.2	17.8	+3.4	33
6	Los Angeles FC	29	20.0	17.6	+2.4	42
7	San Diego	28	19.4	17.1	+2.3	32
8	San Jose Earthquakes	28	15.4	16.2	-0.8	46
9	Houston Dynamo	28	14.1	14.9	-0.8	45
10	Seattle Sounders	28	13.9	17.0	-3.1	41
11	FC Dallas	28	13.6	17.2	-3.6	47
12	Real Salt Lake	28	17.1	22.1	-5.0	32
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	14.9	24.5	-9.6	36
14	Sporting Kansas City	28	12.3	24.0	-11.7	22
15	Austin	28	11.2	23.0	-11.8	31